Golden State Warriors @ 
Dallas MavericksFour championships. Eleven seasons. Two of the greatest shooting performances in NBA history. And now, for the first time in an AWS Rivals Week showcase, Klay Thompson will stand on the opposite bench from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. The Splash Brothers are officially rivals, and the basketball world will be watching to see if the emotions run as deep as the history.
The Story: A Dynasty Fractured, A Rivalry Born
This isn't just another regular season game, and everyone in that arena knows it. When Klay Thompson signed with the Dallas Mavericks this past summer, it officially ended one of the most iconic partnerships in NBA history. The Splash Brothers, the duo that changed basketball forever with their gravity-defying shooting and defensive tenacity, are now on opposite sides. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for four championships, 10 All-Star selections, and over 5,000 made three-pointers together. Now Klay's wearing Mavs blue, and this is where it gets real.
The Warriors come into Dallas riding a wave of momentum. They're 7-2 in their last nine games, looking increasingly like the team that dominated the Western Conference for a decade. At 25-20, they've climbed back into playoff position after a rocky start, and Curry is playing some of the best basketball of his career. He's averaging 27.1 points on 46.8% shooting, including 38.7% from deep, which is absurd for a 37-year-old. More impressively, he's making 4.5 threes per game, leading the entire NBA. Father Time has yet to find Stephen Curry.
Dallas, meanwhile, is in the early stages of what feels like a legitimate rebuild. At 18-26, the Mavericks are well outside the playoff picture, but the focus has shifted to developing their prize acquisition: Cooper Flagg, the most hyped rookie since LeBron James. The Duke product is averaging 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game, showing exactly why he was the consensus number one pick. He's the future. But tonight, the past and the present collide, and Klay Thompson finds himself in the most emotionally charged game of his entire career.
Together: 4 NBA Championships (2015, 2017, 2018, 2022)
Combined All-Star Selections: 10 (Curry 9, Klay 5)
Combined 3-Pointers Made: 5,200+ as teammates
Klay's Greatest Games: 60 pts in 29 minutes vs IND, 14 threes vs CHI, 37 pts in a quarter vs SAC
First Meeting: November 12, 2024 - Warriors won 120-117
The Best Shooter Ever vs The Rookie Who Wants His Crown
Golden State Warriors (25-20)Dallas Mavericks (18-26)Stephen Curry at 37 is still doing things that defy logic. He's leading the league in made three-pointers while being the focal point of every defensive scheme he faces. Teams run him off the line, trap him in pick-and-rolls, and do everything short of tackling him, and he still finds ways to get his shot off. Over his last five games, he's averaging 32 points while shooting 44% from deep. This is what a legacy player looks like when he refuses to accept the end.
Cooper Flagg, meanwhile, represents everything the Mavericks are building toward. The 19-year-old has handled the pressure of being "the next LeBron" with remarkable poise. His 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.1 assists as a rookie would be impressive for anyone, but for someone carrying the weight of those comparisons, it's extraordinary. He's long, athletic, can score at all three levels, and already has the basketball IQ of a veteran. Watching him share the court with Klay Thompson every day in practice is accelerating his development in ways that stats can't capture.
But let's be real: tonight is about Klay. Klay Thompson, who gave everything to the Warriors organization. Klay, who tore his ACL in the 2019 Finals, came back, and then tore his Achilles before playing a single game the next season. Klay, who fought through two career-threatening injuries to come back and win another championship in 2022. And Klay, who watched the Warriors decline to offer him the contract he felt he deserved, ultimately signing with Dallas for the next chapter. There's no bad blood publicly, but you better believe emotions will be running hot when he steps onto that court.
Last 10 Games: 7-2 record, averaging 123.6 PPG
Shooting: 49.8% from the field over the stretch
Defense: Holding opponents to 114.0 PPG (solid)
ATS: 4-1 ATS in last 5 games, covering with room to spare
The Betting Line Breakdown
Golden State opens as a 3.5-point road favorite, which feels about right given the disparity in records and recent form. The Warriors are 7-2 in their last nine while Dallas is in the middle of a rebuild. The moneyline at GSW -166 / DAL +140 reflects a Warriors team that's favored but not dominant, which makes sense on the road against a team that will be emotionally charged. Klay Thompson getting revenge points? The crowd desperately wanting to beat Curry? These intangibles matter.
The total of 231.5 is the real story here. These two teams have been playing faster lately, with Golden State averaging 123.6 points over their last 10 games and Dallas at 115.7. Combined, that's 239+ points, well over the posted number. The Warriors shoot a ton of threes, which creates variance, but they're also hitting them at a high clip. The Mavs will want to run with Golden State rather than grind it out, especially with Flagg and Klay wanting to show out. This has the feel of a track meet, not a defensive slugfest.
The spread tells an interesting story. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, showing they're not just winning but covering. Dallas is 13-10-1 ATS at home, which is solid, but their road ATS record (6-14-0) suggests this team has trouble in hostile environments. Tonight, they're home, and the emotion of the Klay return could either lift them or distract them. It's a genuine toss-up, which makes laying 3.5 with the Warriors feel reasonable but not automatic.
Warriors on the Road: 8-13-0 ATS (struggle covering away from Chase Center)
Mavs at Home: 13-10-1 ATS (solid home cover rate)
Over/Under: Warriors have gone OVER in 24 of 45 games above 231.5
Combined PPG: 231.1 average (right at the number)
Golden State's Path to Victory
The Warriors' blueprint hasn't changed in a decade: move the ball, space the floor, and let Curry cook. When Golden State gets 25+ assists in a game, they're nearly unbeatable. The ball movement creates open looks, and even if Curry is having a quiet night by his standards, they have enough secondary options to punish defenses. Brandin Podziemski has emerged as a legitimate second option, and Draymond Green remains the orchestrator who makes everything flow.
Defensively, Golden State needs to make life difficult for Klay. It sounds odd since they practiced against him for 11 years, but Draymond knows all of Klay's tendencies. Where he likes to catch the ball, his favorite spots, his pump-fake triggers. If the Warriors crowd him on screens and force him into tough contested shots, Klay's impact will be limited. The emotional energy might fuel him for a quarter, but sustainable scoring requires rhythm, and Golden State knows exactly how to take Klay out of his rhythm.
The key matchup is actually Curry vs whoever Dallas throws at him. The Mavs don't have a true lockdown perimeter defender, and Curry has been torching everyone lately. If he gets going early, hitting a few contested pull-up threes with a hand in his face, Dallas is in serious trouble. When Curry is feeling it, there's no game plan that works. You just hope he misses, and lately, he hasn't been missing much.
Dallas's Path to Victory
For the Mavericks to pull the upset, Klay Thompson needs to have one of those games. We've seen it before: Klay gets hot, hits seven or eight threes, and suddenly he's unstoppable. If he can tap into the emotion of facing his former teammates and channel it into buckets rather than distractions, Dallas has a chance. This is a player who scored 60 points in 29 minutes against Indiana, who hit 14 threes against Chicago. On any given night, Klay can be the best shooter on the floor. Even at 35.
Cooper Flagg needs to announce himself on the national stage. This is exactly the kind of game where a star is born. He's been putting up impressive numbers all season, but doing it against the defending Western Conference contenders on Amazon Prime Video is different. If Flagg can attack Draymond off the dribble, finish through contact, and show the world he's every bit the talent we thought he was, Dallas will feed off that energy. The building will be electric.
The Mavs have to crash the offensive glass and get second chances. Golden State's defense is good, but they can be vulnerable to putbacks and offensive rebounds. If Dallas can create extra possessions through hustle plays, it extends possessions against a Warriors team that wants to play in transition. Force Golden State into halfcourt grinders, where their age becomes more of a factor, and you give yourself a chance.
Keys To Victory
For Golden State to cover -3.5: The Warriors need Curry to be Curry, which means 25+ points on efficient shooting and complete control of the offense. They need to limit Klay's looks, using their intimate knowledge of his game against him. Most importantly, they need to avoid the emotional trap game. If Golden State treats this like a business trip and doesn't get caught up in the Klay reunion storyline, they should win by 7+. Their talent is simply superior to what Dallas has assembled.
For Dallas to cover +3.5: The Mavs need Klay to have a "proving point" game where he hits 5+ threes and scores 25+. They need Cooper Flagg to look like the future superstar he's supposed to be. And they need the home crowd to be an absolute factor, feeding energy into every stop and every bucket. If Dallas can make this a 220-point game that comes down to the final possession, they'll cover +3.5 regardless of the outcome. Slow the pace, win the physicality battle, and make Curry work for everything.
Final Thoughts
This is the kind of game that transcends the box score. Sure, the Warriors are the better team on paper. Yes, their 25-20 record is significantly better than Dallas's 18-26. But sports, at their core, are about stories. And the story here is too rich to ignore. Klay Thompson, returning to face the franchise that made him a legend. Stephen Curry, watching his brother in another uniform. Draymond Green, guarding a man he won four championships with. This is the content that AWS Rivals Week was built for.
From a pure basketball perspective, expect the Warriors to control this game for long stretches. They're playing better basketball right now, Curry is in MVP-caliber form, and they have the experience advantage. But Dallas isn't without hope. If Klay catches fire, if Flagg announces himself as a superstar, and if the home crowd provides enough energy to lift them, this could be a game that goes down to the wire. That's the beauty of Rivals Week: emotion can override talent for 48 minutes.
What we know for certain is that everyone will be watching. The Splash Brothers facing off on opposite sides, the rookie phenom trying to make a statement, and the drama of a dynasty fractured playing out in real time. Whether you're betting this game or just watching for the storylines, you're witnessing NBA history. The relationship between Curry and Klay will never be the same after tonight. Basketball moves on, but legacies like theirs last forever.
