Yankees @ Red Sox
Tuesday, 6:45 PM ET | Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Luis Gil takes the ball for New York against rookie Connelly Early in the first Yankees-Red Sox game of a three-game rivalry set at Fenway Park. New York arrives at 13-9 and Boston sits at 8-13, which makes the Yankees -144 road favorite with the Red Sox at +120 and the total set at 9. Gil's swing-and-miss profile runs through the slider and his four-seamer at the top of the zone, and his ability to navigate the short-porch Green Monster left-field dimensions is less a concern than his command against a left-handed-heavy Boston lineup anchored by Rafael Devers and Triston Casas.
Connelly Early's rookie debut in this environment is the storyline for the Red Sox side. A highly-regarded Boston minor-league arm who was pushed up to the major-league rotation earlier than the front office originally projected, Early has command-over-stuff reputation and his ability to keep the Yankees' top-of-the-order bats from early damage will shape whether Boston stays in the game into the middle innings. Jarren Duran's leadoff at-bats against Gil in Fenway are the game's single highest-leverage recurring event. The Yankees are 5-2 straight-up in their last seven against Boston, and the total has gone under in five of the Yankees' last six road games at Fenway.
Aaron Judge's career numbers at Fenway Park remain among the best in any active player's road profile, and Gleyber Torres' on-base production has stabilized the Yankee bottom half after a slow start. Boston's offensive rhythm depends on Devers and Casas producing power, Trevor Story's continued return from injury, and Roman Anthony getting comfortable in his full-season debut role. First pitch 6:45 PM ET on NESN and YES.