College Basketball Analysis

This is it. The biggest game of the college basketball season so far, and it's not particularly close. The No. 1 Arizona Wildcats, a historically perfect 23-0 and 10-0 in Big 12 play, walk into the most hostile environment in the sport to face a Kansas team that's been waiting for exactly this moment all season long. Arizona already set the program record at 22-0, surpassing the 2013-14 squad's 21-0 start, and now Tommy Lloyd's group gets to find out if their perfection can survive the cauldron that is Allen Fieldhouse on a Big Monday night. The Wildcats are No. 1 in the AP poll, No. 1 in KenPom, and No. 1 in NET. They're averaging a blistering 89.3 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the floor and 36.3% from three while holding opponents to just 68.5 points per game. The dominance on the glass is jaw-dropping, outrebounding opponents by a staggering +20 per game with 41.1 to 43.4 rebounds per game, second nationally. In Big 12 play, Arizona limits opponents to just a 25.6% offensive rebounding rate, the best mark in the conference, and holds a +19.2 paint scoring advantage.

What makes this Arizona team so lethal is the depth of their rotation. All eight rotation players have led or tied for the team lead in scoring at some point this season. Freshman Brayden Burries has been a revelation, averaging 15.3 to 17.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 52% from the field and a scorching 39.5% from three, earning a spot on the Jerry West Award watch list. Fellow freshman Koa Peat is equally impressive at 14.8 to 15.2 points and 5.6 rebounds on 57% shooting, and he's on the Karl Malone Award watch list for good reason. Then there's senior Jaden Bradley, the floor general averaging 17.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game who's on the Bob Cousy Award watch list. Add in rim protectors Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka at center, and this is a team with no weak link. When anyone can hurt you on any given night, scouting becomes nearly impossible.

Kansas, at 18-5 overall and 8-2 in Big 12 play, has the firepower to make this uncomfortable for Arizona, but they'll need everything to break right. Freshman phenom Darryn Peterson is the real deal, averaging 19.0 to 21.6 points, 4.6 rebounds per game on 47.3% shooting and a ridiculous 41.7% from deep. He dropped a season-high 32 points earlier this year, and he's widely projected as the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. But there's a caveat: Peterson has dealt with cramping issues that have caused early exits, and when he's not on the floor, the numbers tell a stark story. Kansas averages 81.8 points per game with Peterson vs. just 74.7 without him. If Peterson goes down with cramping in the second half, the Jayhawks' margin for error evaporates. Transfer Tre White from Illinois adds 14.6 points and 7.1 rebounds on 42.5% three-point shooting, while freshman Bryson Tiller has emerged as a solid third option at 8.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game with a career-high 21 against BYU.

Here's where it gets fascinating. Bill Self is an absurd 38-0 on Big Monday at home. That number is almost impossible to comprehend, and it speaks to Self's ability to have his teams ready for the spotlight. But here's the flip side: Kansas has NEVER beaten a No. 1-ranked team at Allen Fieldhouse, going 0-5 all-time. The last time the top-ranked Wildcats visited Lawrence was 2003, when Arizona won 91-74. Something has to give, and the tension between those two historic streaks is going to make for an absolutely electric atmosphere. Kansas leads the all-time series 10-4, and Arizona lost 83-76 at Allen Fieldhouse just last season, so the Wildcats know exactly how difficult this environment can be. Lloyd himself acknowledged as much, saying "It's going to be an awesome atmosphere...those Jayhawk fans are going to be out for blood."

The ATS trends are fascinating as well. Kansas is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Monday games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as an underdog, and 10-1 at home this season. The Jayhawks are the worst team in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding, which is a massive concern against an Arizona team that absolutely dominates the glass. If Kansas can't generate second-chance points and can't slow Arizona's transition game, the Wildcats' superior depth and talent should eventually win out. But a 2.5-point spread in Allen Fieldhouse on Big Monday, with Self's perfect home record on the line? This one is going to come down to the final minutes, and the building is going to be absolutely rocking.

Get ready for a shootout. The 162 total is one of the highest you'll see in major conference basketball this season, and when you look at how these two teams play, it makes perfect sense. NC State is averaging 85.7 points per game on 48.0% shooting and a ridiculous 40.1 to 40.2% from three, one of the best three-point shooting clips in the entire country. Louisville isn't far behind at 85.6 points per game on 46.2% shooting and 34.5% from deep. Both teams want to push tempo, both teams can fill it up from all three levels, and the KFC Yum! Center is going to be treated to a display of offensive firepower that should have the crowd on their feet all night.

Louisville comes in at 17-6 overall and 7-4 in ACC play, and the advanced metrics love them. The Cardinals are 17th in NET, 19th in KenPom, and their BPI of 19.6 ranks 11th nationally. At home, this group has been dominant, anchored by Ryan Conwell's scoring prowess at 18.4 to 19.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. Conwell dropped a season-high 32 on NJIT and is on the Julius Erving Award watch list after earning Preseason First Team All-ACC honors. Transfer Isaac McKneely, who shot 42.1% from three at Virginia, adds another dangerous perimeter weapon to a team that already leads the conference in assists at 17.7 per game (27th nationally). The Cardinals also crash the glass at 40.3 rebounds per game with a +6.2 rebounding margin, and their defense holds opponents to just 40.3% shooting. ESPN's BPI gives Louisville a 75.8% win probability, KenPom projects an 84-79 Cardinals victory with 66% confidence, and BartTorvik has it at Louisville 83-78 with 70% confidence.

NC State, at 18-6 and 9-2 in ACC play, is one of the hottest teams in the league and should not be underestimated despite that 6.5-point spread. The Wolfpack's 40.1 to 40.2% three-point shooting is significantly better than Louisville's 34.5%, and that kind of perimeter advantage can swing a game in a hurry. Darrion Williams has been outstanding at 14.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game, and he erupted for 25 points with six threes against SMU. But the real story might be Quadir Copeland, who leads the ACC in assists and put up one of the most absurd stat lines of the season: 16 assists with zero turnovers against SMU, followed by a 21-point, 10-assist, 5-steal performance against Virginia Tech. When your point guard is playing at that level, good things happen. Ven-Allen Lubin provides interior balance as one of the most efficient big men in the country.

The 148th-ranked defense allowing 72.4 points per game is the elephant in the room for NC State. Louisville's offense is designed to exploit exactly those kinds of defensive vulnerabilities, and the Cardinals' home court advantage at the Yum! Center is a real factor. But if NC State's three-point shooting is clicking and Copeland is distributing at an elite level, those prediction models might be underestimating the Pack's ceiling. This is a game where the team that gets hot from deep first could blow the doors open, or it could be a back-and-forth battle into the final minutes. Either way, the 162 total suggests the scoreboard is going to be busy all night long.