NCAAB January 27, 2026

This is a game that screams "points, points, and more points," and the 166.5 total tells you exactly what the market expects. No. 15 Arkansas (15-5, 5-2 SEC) travels to Norman to face an Oklahoma team (11-9, 1-6 SEC) that's been in absolute freefall during conference play, losing six of seven SEC games after starting the season 11-3. But don't let the record fool you, the Sooners can score. Oklahoma is averaging 83.7 points per game, their highest through 20 games since 2017-18, and they've got four transfers averaging double figures. This game could legitimately end with both teams in the 80s.

Darius Acuff Jr. has been sensational for Arkansas. The freshman guard earned his sixth SEC Freshman of the Week honor in the last seven weeks after averaging 24 points and 5.5 assists across wins over No. 15 Vanderbilt (93-68) and LSU (85-81). He's averaging 20.2 points and 6.2 assists per game this season, and when he's cooking, Arkansas is nearly impossible to stop. The Razorbacks rank third in the SEC with 17.7 assists per game and are scoring 89.6 points per contest. John Calipari's second year in Fayetteville has produced a genuinely dangerous offensive team, with Meleek Thomas (15.2 PPG) and Trevon Brazile (12.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) providing consistent secondary scoring.

Oklahoma's Transfer Portal Gamble

Porter Moser's roster overhaul hasn't delivered the SEC results he was hoping for. The Sooners lost Jeremiah Fears (7th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft), top rebounder Jalon Moore (graduated), and Duke Miles (transferred to Vanderbilt) from last year's NCAA Tournament team. Moser brought in four transfer starters, Xzayvier Brown (16.5 PPG from Saint Joseph's), Nijel Pack (15.7 PPG from Miami), Tae Davis (13.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG from Notre Dame), and Derrion Reid from Alabama, but the chemistry hasn't clicked in SEC play. The 1-6 conference record includes some brutal close losses, including that wild 88-87 overtime defeat to Missouri where they were hit by two buzzer-beating three-pointers.

The historical context adds flavor here. Arkansas and Oklahoma haven't played in Norman since December 2011, and the Hogs are just 3-8 all-time in Oklahoma. Last season, the Sooners actually won in Fayetteville 65-62, so this rivalry has been competitive despite the current form differential. The 2.5-point spread with Arkansas favored on the road tells you the market respects both the Razorbacks' current momentum and Oklahoma's home court, where the Sooners are 8-2 this season. But the key stat that jumps off the page: Arkansas averages 13.7 more points per game than Oklahoma allows. If the Razorbacks' offense is firing, the Sooners could be in for a long night.

The Bottom Line

This has the makings of a track meet. Both offenses are elite at generating points, with a combined 173.3 points per game between them. The 166.5 total feels appropriately high but could still go over if both teams get into transition. Arkansas has the better overall resume and the better star in Acuff, but Oklahoma's home court has been a haven (8-2) even as everything else has crumbled. The Sooners' three-point shooting is a serious threat, they're averaging 9.7 made threes per game, 1.3 more than the 8.4 Arkansas typically allows. That said, Arkansas is playing with incredible confidence right now after dismantling a ranked Vanderbilt team 93-68. The 2.5-point spread is razor thin for a reason, and the Sooners' desperation could make this a lot closer than the overall records suggest.

Ryan Odom has completely transformed Virginia basketball. In his first season in Charlottesville, the Cavaliers (16-3, 5-2 ACC) are averaging 87.0 points per game, the second-highest scoring average in school history, trailing only the 89.8 PPG from the 1954-55 season. Let that sink in. This is Virginia, the program famous for Tony Bennett's Pack Line defense and glacial tempo, now running and gunning their way to a 16-3 record. The revolution has been built on the transfer portal, with 12 newcomers including Dallin Hall (BYU), Jacari White (North Dakota State), Devin Tillis (UC Irvine), and Malik Thomas (San Francisco) forming the backbone of a roster that looks nothing like last year's team.

The defensive numbers are just as impressive as the offensive transformation. Virginia ranks first in the ACC in rebounds, offensive rebounds, field goal percentage defense (.381), three-point field goal percentage defense (.289), and blocks (6.4 per game). Jacari White has been a revelation, shooting 50% from three-point range with 30 made threes, including a school-record 12 consecutive made threes during a three-game stretch in early December. Hall, the BYU transfer, leads the team with 4.4 assists per game and ranks first in the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio at a pristine 3.2. This is a team that's deep, versatile, and playing with the confidence of a squad that knows it can beat anyone.

Notre Dame Searching for a Signature Win

Notre Dame (11-9, 2-5 ACC) is in a tricky spot. Micah Shrewsberry's third season has been a grind, with the Irish sitting at just 2-6 in Quad 1 games and 83rd in the NET rankings. However, their gritty 68-64 comeback win over Boston College on Saturday, where they erased a 13-point deficit, showed this team still has fight. Braeden Shrewsberry dropped 22 points in that comeback effort, and the Irish know that beating a ranked Virginia team would be their first victory over a ranked opponent under Coach Shrewsberry and a potential season-defining moment for their resume.

The 9.5-point spread is significant, and it's justified by the stark differences in these two teams. Virginia averages 87.0 points while holding opponents to just 67.1, giving them a nearly 20-point scoring margin. Their KenPom ranking sits at 26th overall, while Notre Dame is outside the top 80. Seven different Cavaliers have led the team in scoring in a game this season, which speaks to the unpredictability and depth of Odom's attack. The 141.5 total is the lowest on tonight's board, which makes sense given Virginia's elite defensive metrics, particularly that .289 three-point percentage defense that ranks first in the ACC. Notre Dame will need to play their best game of the season to keep this competitive, and their recent form suggests that's a tall order.

The Bottom Line

Virginia's transformation under Odom has been one of the best stories in college basketball this season, and their balanced attack makes them exceptionally difficult to game-plan against. The Cavaliers' defensive metrics, especially that league-best three-point defense, are a nightmare for a Notre Dame team that needs to shoot well from deep to keep pace. The 9.5-point spread is aggressive for a road game, but Virginia's 4-1 away record and their nearly 20-point scoring margin suggest they're perfectly capable of covering even in a hostile environment. Notre Dame's comeback win over Boston College showed heart, and Purcell Pavilion can get loud, but the talent and depth disparity here is substantial. Virginia should control this game from start to finish, and the 141.5 total reflects the Cavaliers' ability to slow things down defensively when they need to.

Memorial Gymnasium is unlike anywhere else in college basketball. The raised floor, the end-line benches, the intimate atmosphere, it's a building that gives Vanderbilt a legitimate edge, and the Commodores are going to need every ounce of it against a Kentucky team riding a five-game winning streak. No. 18 Vanderbilt (17-3, 4-3 SEC) started the season with a jaw-dropping 16-0 run before reality hit with three consecutive SEC losses to Texas, Florida, and Arkansas. But they bounced back in emphatic fashion, blowing out Mississippi State 88-56 on Saturday to prove the death of this Commodores team was greatly exaggerated.

Kentucky (14-6, 5-2 SEC) is the hottest team walking into Nashville. Mark Pope's squad has won five straight, knocking off Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss, and in four of those five wins, they've sealed the deal with late-game grit and execution. That's a dramatic improvement from earlier in the season when late-game failures cost them games against North Carolina and Missouri. Otega Oweh has been on a tear, averaging 16 points per game during the winning streak with seven 20-point games in the last 11 contests, including a game-high 23 in the win over Ole Miss. This is a UK team that has figured something out, and they're playing with serious confidence.

Injury Report: Kentucky's Thin Rotation

Here's where things get complicated for the Wildcats. Kentucky is missing three key contributors: Jaland Lowe (out for the season), Kam Williams (broken foot, had surgery), and Jayden Quaintance. That's a massive chunk of their rotation gone, and it's going to force Pope to lean heavily on Oweh and the supporting cast. Despite the absences, UK has thrived, which says a lot about the culture Pope has built, but playing a ranked team at Memorial Gymnasium with a shortened rotation is an entirely different challenge. Vanderbilt's own injury concerns include Frankie Collins, who has been listed as out for recent games and remains questionable.

The Commodores' three-game losing streak to Texas, Florida, and Arkansas (68-93 in that last one) raised legitimate questions about how this team handles adversity. The 88-56 destruction of Mississippi State answered some of those concerns, but beating a struggling Mississippi State team at home is very different from handling a Kentucky squad that's won five straight and playing with house money. The 6.5-point spread feels like it's pricing in Memorial Gymnasium's home court advantage and Kentucky's injury woes. The 160.5 total is interesting, as both teams can score in bunches. Vanderbilt scored 96, 84, 64, 94, and 88 in their last five games, while Kentucky put up 72, 76, 83, 80, and 72 in their last five.

The Bottom Line

This is one of the most fascinating SEC games of the week because both teams have legitimate momentum despite their very different trajectories. Vanderbilt's 16-0 start looks distant after three consecutive losses, but the Mississippi State blowout suggests the Commodores have reset their confidence. Kentucky's five-game winning streak is undeniably impressive, but doing it without Lowe, Williams, and Quaintance raises questions about sustainability, especially in a hostile road environment like Memorial Gym. The 6.5-point spread is essentially asking whether Kentucky's injury-ravaged roster can keep pace with a Vanderbilt team playing in one of the most unique and difficult venues in all of college basketball. The Wildcats have closed games beautifully during their streak, but the depth issue looms large for a full 40 minutes against a team that started the season 16-0. Both teams need this win to stay in the conversation for upper-tier SEC seeding.

No. 23 Alabama (13-6, 3-3 SEC) is licking their wounds after a frustrating home loss to Tennessee, blowing a 22-12 first-half lead before falling 79-73. That's the kind of collapse that can derail a season if you let it, and Nate Oats knows his team needs to respond immediately. The Crimson Tide score 92.1 points per game, an absolutely absurd number that ranks among the nation's best, but their defensive inconsistencies have been the story of the season. They've got the talent to beat anyone in the country, but they've also shown the ability to lose games they shouldn't, as evidenced by their 3-3 SEC mark.

Missouri (14-6, 4-3 SEC) rolls into Tuscaloosa on a high after pulling off an absolutely wild 88-87 overtime win over Oklahoma on Saturday, a game that featured two buzzer-beating three-pointers. Three Tigers scored 20-plus in that one: Mark Mitchell (25), T.O. Barrett (21), and Jayden Stone (20). Dennis Gates' squad has been one of the more interesting teams in the SEC this season, sitting 14-6 overall with the nation's best scoring defense in conference play, holding opponents to a 41.1% field goal percentage in SEC games. They're also a perfect 13-0 when scoring at least 73 points, but 0-6 when they don't reach that mark. Talk about a defining stat.

Alabama's Offensive Firepower vs. Mizzou's SEC-Best Defense

This is the classic irresistible force meets immovable object scenario. Alabama's 92.1 points per game is a staggering 19.1 more than the 73.0 Missouri typically allows. Something has to give. The Crimson Tide have multiple weapons capable of going off on any given night. Labaron Philon scored 29 in their loss to Gonzaga, Aiden Sherrell put up 8 blocks against Clemson, and Aden Holloway dished 10 assists in a 105-72 demolition of Maryland. When this Alabama team is clicking, they're as entertaining and dangerous as anyone in college basketball. But the Tennessee loss, where they coughed up a double-digit lead at home, is a worrying sign about their ability to maintain intensity for a full 40 minutes.

Missouri's three-point shooting could be the x-factor here. The Tigers are the only team in the country with three players averaging at least two made threes per game while shooting 40% from beyond the arc. Mitchell leads the team at 17.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, but it's the depth of scoring, with five players in double figures, that makes Missouri dangerous. The catch? Coleman Coliseum has historically been a nightmare for the Tigers. Missouri has only won once in Tuscaloosa (January 2018), with Alabama holding a 9-2 home record in the series. The 10.5-point spread is steep, but Alabama's offensive upside at home, combined with the venue history, suggests the Crimson Tide should control this one if they bring the defensive effort they failed to sustain against Tennessee.

The Bottom Line

The 10.5-point spread is the largest on tonight's SEC slate, and it's driven by two key factors: Alabama's offensive ceiling at home and Missouri's dismal historical record in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide's 92.1 scoring average is genuinely elite, and when they get rolling in Coleman Coliseum, they can bury teams in a hurry. But Missouri's SEC-best field goal percentage defense and their three-point shooting depth make them a trickier matchup than the spread suggests. The Tigers' 13-0 record when scoring 73+ points means the magic number for them is clear, get to 73 and they've got a real shot. Alabama's defensive lapses, particularly blowing that 22-12 lead against Tennessee, suggest there are cracks in the armor that a disciplined team like Missouri can exploit. The 164.5 total is juicy given Alabama's scoring output, and the over has real potential if Missouri's offense can keep pace. This is a game where Alabama's talent should eventually win out, but don't be surprised if it's a lot more competitive than 10.5 points.