Bucks @ Thunder
Thursday, 7:30 PM ET ESPN | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Here's something wild to wrap your head around: neither team's best player is suiting up tonight, and the Thunder are still 13-point favorites. That's a testament to what Oklahoma City has built under Mark Daigneault and, simultaneously, a damning indictment of where Milwaukee has fallen. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been out with an abdominal strain since February 3, with a re-evaluation scheduled after the All-Star break. Giannis Antetokounmpo is sidelined with a right calf strain and targeting a February 20 return at the earliest. On paper, you'd think the absence of both franchise players would narrow this gap considerably. The market disagrees, and honestly, the market has a point. OKC (42-13) started this season 24-1 and boasts the NBA's best record by a comfortable margin. Their Offensive Rating of 119.3 ranks fourth in the league, their Defensive Rating of 107.4 is the best in basketball, and their +11.8 Net Rating is a full 3.5 points higher than any other team. Even in their last 10 games, with SGA sidelined for most of them, the Thunder are averaging 116.8 points while holding opponents to just 106.0.
The machine keeps humming because the supporting cast in OKC is terrifyingly deep. Chet Holmgren has been a monster in SGA's absence, putting up 17.6 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game on a ridiculous 59.8% shooting. That 7-foot-1 frame changes every shot at the rim, and his ability to stretch the floor on offense gives the Thunder spacing that most teams can only dream about. And here's the real kicker: Jalen Williams just returned from a 10-game absence with a hamstring injury and immediately dropped 23 points in OKC's win over the Lakers. Williams' versatility as a 6-foot-6 wing who can guard multiple positions and create offense from the perimeter gives the Thunder another All-Star-caliber option even without SGA in the lineup. OKC is 22-6 at home this season, and Paycom Center has been one of the most hostile buildings in basketball.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, is a disaster. The Bucks (22-30) have been absolutely lost without Giannis, going 6-15 in games he's missed this season. Damian Lillard was waived after tearing his Achilles, meaning the franchise's second-best player is gone, having returned to Portland. What's left in Milwaukee is a collection of role players trying to stay afloat. Ryan Rollins has emerged as a bright spot, averaging 16.5 points per game and earning AAC Player of the Week honors recently. Myles Turner provides some interior presence at 12.8 points and 1.6 blocks per game, and Kyle Kuzma, acquired from Washington in the Khris Middleton trade, is chipping in 12.8 points. Bobby Portis remains a reliable 13.1 points off the bench. But there's no alpha in this group, and the Bucks just got smacked by Orlando 118-99 in their last outing, which tells you where the energy level is heading into the break.
The Thunder have won the last four meetings between these teams, including a 122-102 demolition in January, and the situational trends are fascinating. OKC is 26-28 against the spread overall but 11-10 at home, while the over has hit in 6 of the Thunder's last 7 games. That over trend is worth paying attention to: even without SGA, OKC's offense has been generating enough volume to push totals, and Milwaukee's defense without Giannis' rim protection has been leaking points at an alarming rate. The 216.5 total feels low given those trends, though it also reflects the possibility that OKC builds a massive lead early and coasts through the fourth quarter with the bench units. This is the kind of ESPN showcase where the defending champs flex their depth and remind everyone that their dynasty is built to survive individual absences.
