NBA January 21, 2026

The Cleveland Cavaliers bring one of the league's most potent offenses to Charlotte as AWS Rivals Week kicks off Wednesday night. Cleveland (24-20) enters averaging a blistering 119.2 points per game, ranking seventh in the NBA, while posting equally impressive peripherals with 45.1 rebounds per game (9th) and 27.8 assists per game (9th). The Cavaliers have found a rhythm after an inconsistent start to the season, and their offensive firepower makes them dangerous against anyone, particularly a Charlotte team struggling to defend at a high level.

The Hornets (16-27) have been one of the more fascinating against-the-spread stories in the league recently. Charlotte is a scorching 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games, covering numbers at a rate that suggests the market consistently undervalues them. That's remarkable given their overall record, but it speaks to a team that competes hard and plays opponents tight even when the talent gap is significant. LaMelo Ball's playmaking ability keeps Charlotte in games, and their up-tempo style can create variance that benefits underdogs. The Hornets push pace relentlessly, which generates transition opportunities that can mask their half-court deficiencies.

Cleveland's offensive efficiency has been elite, posting a 116.4 offensive rating that ranks among the league's best. Donovan Mitchell continues to carry a substantial scoring burden, while Darius Garland's return from injury has stabilized the backcourt. The Cavaliers' ability to generate quality looks in the half-court sets them apart from teams that rely purely on transition. Against Charlotte's bottom-ten defense, Cleveland should find the going easy on the offensive end. The question is whether the Cavaliers can maintain defensive intensity against a Hornets team that plays at one of the league's fastest paces.

The 7.5-point spread represents a significant number, but Cleveland has been dominant on the road this season. The Cavaliers' 12-10 road record isn't spectacular, but they've covered spreads consistently when facing inferior competition. Charlotte's recent ATS success is worth monitoring, but a team averaging 119+ points should be able to pull away in the fourth quarter against a rebuilding roster. The total of 224.5 might be the more interesting market, given Cleveland's offensive firepower and Charlotte's inability to get stops. Both teams play at elevated tempos, which could push this toward the over if neither defense establishes itself early.

This is a classic pace-and-space matchup where the more talented team should eventually separate. Cleveland's depth and shooting give them options that Charlotte can't match, and the Cavaliers' defensive scheme can adapt to different lineup configurations. Mitchell should feast against Charlotte's perimeter defense, and the Hornets lack the rim protection to discourage drives. Expect Cleveland to control this game from the second quarter onward, with the only suspense being whether Charlotte's pace-pushing can keep the margin close enough to cover. The Cavaliers' superior execution should win out, but the Hornets have proven they don't go quietly.

The Indiana Pacers (10-34) trudge into TD Garden for what projects as one of the most lopsided matchups of the night against the Boston Celtics (26-16). The Pacers enter on the back of a brutal stretch that's seen their season spiral, and the absences keep piling up. Tyrese Haliburton's Achilles injury from the 2025 Finals continues to cast a long shadow over this franchise, and Indiana has struggled to find any semblance of offensive rhythm without their floor general orchestrating the attack. The Pacers rank dead last in offensive rating since November 1st, and their transition attack has completely stalled without Haliburton pushing pace.

Here's the number that should terrify Boston backers: Indiana is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings against the Celtics. That's not a typo. Despite the massive talent disparity, the Pacers have found ways to cover spreads against Boston with remarkable consistency. There's something about this matchup that produces competitive games, whether it's Indiana's pace causing issues for Boston's defensive schemes or the Celtics' tendency to coast against inferior opponents. The under has also been a consistent winner, hitting in 7 of Indiana's last 8 games overall. That's a staggering rate that suggests Indiana's games simply don't produce the offense that elevated totals imply.

Boston's post-Tatum era has been defined by Jaylen Brown's emergence as a legitimate MVP candidate. Brown (29.5 PPG, 5.0 APG) has elevated his game to heights few predicted, and his efficiency numbers have been otherworldly. Shooting 50.3% from the field while carrying the primary scoring burden is elite production, and Brown has proven he can be a number-one option on a championship contender. Payton Pritchard's emergence as a third option (16.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) has been crucial to Boston's ability to maintain playoff positioning despite losing Tatum to a season-ending Achilles injury.

FS1 projects Boston 122-106, which aligns with the massive spread. The Celtics should absolutely dominate this game from start to finish, with their superior shooting, defense, and half-court execution proving insurmountable. Indiana lacks the firepower to keep pace in a half-court game, and Boston's defensive scheme should stifle whatever offensive actions the Pacers attempt. The only question is whether Boston plays with enough intensity to blow past the number, or if they ease off the gas pedal in the fourth quarter once the outcome is decided.

The 14.5-point spread is enormous, but Indiana's ATS history against Boston gives pause. The Pacers push pace relentlessly, which creates variance that can keep games closer than talent suggests. If Indiana can generate transition opportunities and avoid turnovers, they could hang around longer than expected. That said, Boston's home-court advantage at TD Garden has been significant this season, and the Celtics typically respond to national attention with dominant performances. The under feels like the sharper play given Indiana's recent trends, but the spread is a coin flip based on historical patterns that defy logical explanation.

The Battle of New York continues at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks (25-18) host the struggling Nets (12-29) in a crosstown rivalry that's become decidedly one-sided. These teams met earlier this season, and New York dominated 113-100 behind a 37-point explosion from Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT has been absolutely sensational since arriving in New York, and his ability to stretch the floor while punishing smaller defenders in the post has transformed the Knicks' offensive ceiling. Towns has embraced the Madison Square Garden spotlight, and he should be licking his chops at the prospect of another dominant performance against Brooklyn's undermanned frontcourt.

The Nets' season has been a masterclass in rebuilding through losses. Brooklyn is 1-9 in their last 10 games at Barclays Center, and their home-court disadvantage extends to road games where they've shown similar futility. The Nets lack a true go-to scorer, relying on committee offense that produces wildly inconsistent results. Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges provide veteran presence, but neither is equipped to carry an offense against quality opponents. Brooklyn's defensive intensity fluctuates from quarter to quarter, and they're prone to extended scoring droughts that allow opponents to build insurmountable leads.

New York's road record of 14-8 speaks to their ability to win away from MSG, but this is a home game where the Knicks should be even more comfortable. The Garden crowd will be electric for a rivalry game, and Jalen Brunson typically rises to big moments on the biggest stage. Brunson's mid-range game has been automatic this season, and his ability to navigate screens while creating separation makes him nearly unguardable when he's in rhythm. The Knicks' supporting cast provides options that Brooklyn can't match, with OG Anunoby's two-way brilliance and Josh Hart's hustle plays creating advantages that compound over 48 minutes.

The 10-point spread is substantial, but the Knicks have been dominant in this matchup. New York's 113-100 win earlier this season came on the road, and home-court advantage at MSG should only amplify their edge. The Knicks' defensive scheme can suffocate Brooklyn's limited offensive options, and their rebounding advantage should create second-chance opportunities that the Nets can't match. Brooklyn's youth and inexperience typically shows against veteran teams that execute in the half-court, and the Knicks are exactly that kind of opponent.

The total of 222 reflects both teams' defensive capabilities, with New York's defense ranking among the league's best and Brooklyn's pace-down approach limiting possessions. The Knicks prefer to grind games out rather than run opponents off the floor, which could keep the scoring moderate even in a lopsided contest. Expect New York to control this game from the opening tip, building a double-digit lead by halftime and managing the margin thereafter. The Nets have shown fight in spots, but they simply don't have the firepower to challenge the Knicks when New York plays to its potential. This is a comfortable Knicks victory that should cover the 10-point spread with some breathing room.

The Atlanta Hawks enter FedExForum navigating the post-Trae Young era, and the results have been mixed. Since shipping the three-time All-Star to Washington in a blockbuster deal, Atlanta has leaned into their young core led by Jalen Johnson. Johnson's versatility has been a revelation, as his ability to guard multiple positions while creating his own shot gives Atlanta flexibility they didn't have with Young dominating the ball. The Hawks' identity has shifted from perimeter-heavy offense to a more balanced attack that emphasizes transition opportunities and ball movement.

Memphis continues to assert themselves as one of the Western Conference's most entertaining teams. Ja Morant has returned to form after injury concerns derailed his 2024-25 campaign, and his athleticism and fearlessness attacking the rim makes the Grizzlies appointment television. Morant's court vision creates open looks for teammates, and Memphis' pace pushes opponents into uncomfortable positions. The Grizzlies rank in the top five in transition points, and their defensive intensity at FedExForum has been suffocating. Jaren Jackson Jr. anchors the defense with his shot-blocking presence, while Desmond Bane's shooting stretches defenses and opens driving lanes.

The elevated total of 236.5 reflects both teams' offensive capabilities and tempo preferences. Atlanta and Memphis both prefer to push pace, which generates possessions and scoring opportunities that inflate totals. The Hawks' defensive deficiencies are well-documented, and Memphis should find the going easy against Atlanta's porous perimeter defense. Conversely, the Grizzlies occasionally fall into lulls where their half-court offense stagnates, which could give Atlanta opportunities to hang around if Johnson and company can exploit those windows.

Home-court advantage at FedExForum has been significant for Memphis this season. The Grizzlies feed off the crowd energy, and their defensive intensity spikes when the building is rocking. Atlanta's road struggles are well-documented, and the Hawks have failed to establish themselves as a consistent threat away from State Farm Arena. The 6.5-point spread suggests Memphis should control this game, and the Grizzlies' superior depth and experience should manifest in crunch time. Morant's ability to take over games gives Memphis an edge that Atlanta simply can't match without Young creating advantages.

This is a matchup where tempo will determine everything. If Memphis can push pace and generate transition opportunities, they should pull away in the second half. Atlanta's transition defense has been suspect, and Morant's speed and finishing ability could produce several highlight-reel plays. The Hawks will need Johnson to carry a substantial offensive burden while staying out of foul trouble, which is a tall order against Memphis' physical style. Expect Memphis to cover the spread comfortably while the total pushes toward the over in an up-tempo affair that showcases both teams' offensive capabilities.

The Detroit Pistons' remarkable resurgence continues as they travel to New Orleans as road favorites against the Pelicans. Detroit's 30-10 record sits atop the Eastern Conference, a transformation that would have seemed impossible a year ago when they were battling for lottery positioning. The Pistons have built their success on elite defense, unselfish ball movement, and the emergence of their young core into legitimate stars. Their defensive rating ranks among the league's best, and their systematic approach under head coach Monty Williams has created a winning culture that permeates every aspect of the organization.

New Orleans' season has been derailed by injuries, with their former wing's trade to Toronto leaving a massive void in their offensive scheme. The Pelicans have struggled to find consistent scoring options, and their defensive intensity has waned as the losses have mounted. Zion Williamson's availability remains game-to-game, and when he's been on the floor, his dominance in the paint has been evident. But Zion can't do it alone, and the supporting cast around him lacks the shooting and creation to sustain offensive success against quality defenses.

Detroit's road success has been remarkable this season. The Pistons have proven they can win in hostile environments, and their defensive principles travel well regardless of venue. Cade Cunningham's absence (knee injury) has been a storyline for weeks, but Detroit has continued winning without their franchise cornerstone. The team's depth and defensive cohesion have been enough to overcome the loss of their most talented player, which speaks to the cultural foundation Williams has established. The Pistons get contributions from multiple sources each night, making them difficult to game plan against.

The total of 221.5 reflects both teams' defensive capabilities and the Pistons' preferred pace. Detroit doesn't seek to outscore opponents; they grind games out and win on the margins. The Pelicans' offensive struggles should continue against a Detroit defense that excels at limiting transition opportunities and forcing difficult half-court shots. New Orleans' defensive deficiencies will be exposed against a Pistons team that moves the ball effectively and finds open shooters through ball reversal.

This spread feels appropriate given the talent and record disparity. Detroit has been covering numbers at a strong rate, and their disciplined approach should suffocate New Orleans' limited offensive attack. The Pistons' defensive versatility allows them to switch effectively, which negates the pick-and-roll actions that power most NBA offenses. Expect a low-scoring, grinding affair where Detroit's superior execution and defensive intensity prove decisive. The Pelicans' home-court advantage at Smoothie King Center hasn't been significant this season, and the Pistons should have no trouble extending their impressive road record.

The defending NBA champions roll into Milwaukee for the marquee matchup of Wednesday night as the Oklahoma City Thunder (35-7) look to maintain their stranglehold on the Western Conference against the struggling Bucks (17-24). This is championship versus chaos, as OKC has been utterly dominant while Milwaukee searches for any semblance of the identity that made them title contenders just a few years ago. The Thunder's 35-7 record is the best in the league by a comfortable margin, and their systematic excellence on both ends of the floor makes them the prohibitive favorite to repeat as champions.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his assault on the MVP race, averaging a league-best 31.8 points per game while dishing 6.2 assists per contest. SGA has taken his game to heights that seemed impossible even two years ago, combining elite mid-range shooting with the ability to get to the rim through traffic. His defensive engagement has improved dramatically, and he's become a two-way force that impacts winning on both ends. The Thunder's supporting cast has been equally impressive, with Chet Holmgren (18.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) providing elite rim protection and floor-spacing that creates driving lanes for SGA. Jalen Williams' emergence as a legitimate third star has given OKC the offensive firepower to compete with anyone.

Milwaukee's 17-24 record is their worst first-half mark since the 2015-16 season, a stunning fall for a franchise that hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2021. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a force of nature, but even the Greek Freak can't will this roster to victories alone. The Bucks' supporting cast has been inconsistent, and their defensive identity has completely disappeared. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom third in defensive rating, a far cry from the elite defenses that propelled them to championships. Dame Lillard's arrival was supposed to solve their half-court offense issues, but the fit alongside Giannis has been shakier than expected.

FS1 projects Thunder 120-109, which aligns with the 5.5-point spread. OKC should control this game through their defensive principles and half-court execution, limiting Milwaukee's transition opportunities while generating quality looks on the other end. The Thunder's defensive scheme is designed to funnel opponents into Holmgren's shot-blocking range, which could frustrate Giannis' rim attacks. SGA should find open looks against Milwaukee's porous perimeter defense, and the Thunder's ball movement will expose the Bucks' defensive lapses.

The total of 230.5 suggests a moderately paced game with both offenses capable of explosion. Giannis will get his numbers regardless of opponent, and his ability to score in the paint should keep Milwaukee within striking distance. But OKC's defensive versatility and SGA's fourth-quarter clutch performances should prove decisive down the stretch. The Thunder have been dominant in close games, converting at an elite rate in crunch time situations. Milwaukee's inexperience in pressure moments this season has been evident, and their tendency to make mistakes in the final five minutes could be costly against a disciplined Thunder team. Expect OKC to cover the 5.5-point spread while the total lands somewhere near the number in an entertaining national TV showcase.

The Toronto Raptors head to Sacramento for the late-night West Coast action, bringing the former wing to face the Kings in one of his first road tests since arriving from New Orleans. their former wing's trade to Toronto was one of the more intriguing deals of the February deadline, and the Raptors have leaned into their new offensive centerpiece. Ingram's isolation scoring provides Toronto with a go-to option they've lacked since Kawhi Leonard's departure, and his ability to create his own shot in the half-court gives the Raptors options they didn't have before. The fit alongside Scottie Barnes has been interesting, as both players need the ball to maximize their impact.

Sacramento's playoff aspirations hang in the balance as they navigate a crowded Western Conference playoff race. The Kings have been inconsistent this season, with Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis trying to build chemistry while the supporting cast struggles to provide reliable contributions. LaVine's scoring ability keeps the Kings' offense dangerous, and Sabonis' passing and rebounding create advantages that compound over 48 minutes. Sacramento's home-court advantage at Golden 1 Center has been significant, with the crowd energy fueling their up-tempo style.

The Kings' offensive efficiency has been impressive when they're clicking, but their defensive inconsistency has cost them games against quality opponents. Sacramento ranks in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, and their perimeter defense has been particularly vulnerable. Ingram should find open looks against the Kings' aggressive defensive schemes, and his mid-range game could feast if Sacramento overplays. Toronto's defensive principles have been solid this season, and their length and athleticism could disrupt Sacramento's rhythm.

The elevated total of 232.5 reflects both teams' offensive capabilities and the up-tempo style they prefer. Sacramento wants to push pace and generate transition opportunities, while Toronto is comfortable playing at an elevated tempo with Ingram creating in the half-court. The Kings' home-court scoring has been prolific, and the Raptors' road defense has been inconsistent. Expect both offenses to find rhythm early, with the total pushing toward the over if neither team can establish defensive stops.

The 7.5-point spread feels appropriate given Sacramento's home-court advantage and Toronto's road struggles. The Kings should control this game through their transition attack while Sabonis dominates the boards. Ingram will keep the Raptors competitive with his scoring, but Toronto lacks the defensive intensity to slow Sacramento's offensive onslaught. LaVine's scoring ability should create open looks for teammates, and the Kings' crowd will fuel their energy in the second half. Expect Sacramento to cover comfortably while both offenses produce in an entertaining late-night showcase that pushes the total toward the over.