NBA January 26, 2026

Indiana's nightmare season continues. At 11-35, the Pacers own the worst record in the NBA, and the Tyrese Haliburton situation has defined their year. The young floor general has been limited by an Achilles injury that's kept him in and out of the lineup, and without his playmaking, Indiana's offense ranks dead last in assists per game and 28th in offensive rating. Pascal Siakam has been a bright spot, averaging 23.8 points, but he's essentially operating as a one-man show on most nights.

Atlanta sits at 22-25, a mediocre record on paper but a team with significantly more firepower than their opponent. Trae Young is averaging 26.4 points and 10.8 assists, continuing to be one of the league's elite playmakers. The Hawks have won five of their last seven at State Farm Arena, where their offensive rating jumps to 116.2. Dejounte Murray's two-way contributions and Jalen Johnson's breakout season give Atlanta the kind of depth Indiana simply can't match.

The 5.5-point spread reflects the talent chasm between these rosters. Indiana's road offense has been anemic, scoring just 105.8 points per game away from home, while Atlanta's home defense has tightened up recently. The 232.5 total is inflated by the pace both teams play at, as Indiana ranks 5th in possessions per game despite their losing ways. The Hawks should control this one from the opening tip.

Here's a fascinating line that tells you everything about what the market knows. Charlotte, at 18-28, is laying 3.5 points against a Philadelphia team sitting at 24-20. That's the kind of number that screams injury-driven, and the 76ers have been ravaged all season. Philadelphia's availability issues have been well-documented, and when their core players are sidelined, this roster lacks the depth to compete on the road.

LaMelo Ball has been sensational for Charlotte when healthy, averaging 25.6 points and 8.1 assists with the kind of flair that fills Spectrum Center. The Hornets are 12-11 at home this season, a significant improvement from their overall record, and their young core of Ball, Brandon Miller, and Mark Williams has found a rhythm in front of the home crowd. Miller's emergence as a two-way wing has been one of the league's best stories, shooting 38% from deep while providing solid perimeter defense.

The 227.5 total suggests a slower-paced affair, which makes sense if Philadelphia is running a shortened rotation. Charlotte's defense at home has been respectable, allowing 112.4 points per game. When the market makes a sub-.500 team a 3.5-point home favorite over a team with a winning record, you pay attention. The oddsmakers clearly expect Philadelphia to be severely shorthanded, and Charlotte has the home-court advantage to capitalize.

Boston's season has been defined by resilience. Despite losing Jayson Tatum to an Achilles injury that's kept him sidelined, the Celtics have maintained a 28-17 record and remain firmly in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Jaylen Brown has embraced the lead role, averaging 27.3 points since Tatum went down, and the supporting cast of Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday gives Boston one of the deepest rosters in the league regardless of who's available.

Portland arrives at .500 (23-23), a testament to their young talent but also a reflection of their ceiling. Anfernee Simons has been explosive as the primary scorer, and Scoot Henderson's development at point guard has exceeded expectations. The Blazers play fast, ranking 7th in pace, which can lead to high-variance outcomes. On the road, though, that pace often works against them, as they're allowing 117.2 points per game away from the Moda Center.

The 8.5-point spread might seem generous for a team missing its best player, but Boston's home record tells the story. The Celtics are 18-5 at TD Garden with a +9.2 point differential. Their defensive system, anchored by Porzingis' rim protection and White's perimeter activity, doesn't need Tatum to dominate lesser opponents. The 224.5 total reflects Boston's defensive identity at home, where they've held opponents under 108 points in 14 of 23 games.

Houston has transformed into one of the Western Conference's elite teams since acquiring Kevin Durant in the offseason. At 27-16, the Rockets boast the league's 4th-best record, and Durant's presence has elevated the entire roster. The 36-year-old is averaging 28.4 points on his trademark efficiency, and his ability to score from anywhere on the floor creates spacing that benefits everyone around him. Jalen Green's development alongside Durant has been remarkable, as he's averaging a career-high 22.1 points while learning from one of the game's all-time greats.

The Rockets have dealt with adversity too, as Fred VanVleet suffered a torn ACL that ended his season. Despite that loss, Amen Thompson has stepped into the backcourt and shown flashes of the two-way playmaker Houston envisioned when they drafted him. Alperen Sengun's passing from the center position gives Houston a unique offensive wrinkle, and their defensive rating of 109.4 ranks 8th in the league.

Memphis (18-25) is limping into Toyota Center with serious roster concerns. Ja Morant's availability has been inconsistent, and without his explosive driving, the Grizzlies' offense becomes predictable. They're scoring just 106.2 points per game on the road, well below their home average. The 9.5-point spread is steep but warranted given the talent gap. Houston is 16-5 at home this season, and their defensive length should suffocate Memphis's half-court offense. The 222.5 total reflects the defensive prowess of both teams, though Houston's home offense often exceeds expectations.