NBA January 27, 2026

Look, when the Wizards are laying 6.5 points to anybody at home, you know you've hit rock bottom. Washington's 10-34 record is the worst in the Eastern Conference, and their 6-15 home mark is equally dismal. Capital One Arena has become a house of horrors for a franchise that can't seem to find its footing. The Wizards' defensive rating of 118.2 ranks dead last in the NBA, and they're surrendering 120.4 points per game over their last ten outings. There's simply no resistance on that end of the floor.

Portland rolls in at 23-24, a team that's quietly having a respectable season despite limited expectations. Anfernee Simons continues to establish himself as a legitimate go-to scorer, and the Blazers' young core has shown genuine improvement throughout the year. At 10-13 on the road, they're no world-beaters away from the Moda Center, but against a defense this porous, the matchup feels almost unfair. Portland's pace of play ranks in the top ten league-wide, and they'll happily push the tempo against a Wizards squad that can't keep up.

The 232.5 total is interesting given both teams' tendencies. Portland plays fast and Washington plays bad defense, which is a recipe for points. The Blazers have gone over in seven of their last ten road games, and the Wizards simply don't have the personnel to slow anybody down. The 6.5-point spread might actually undervalue the talent gap here, as Portland boasts the clear advantage at nearly every position. Washington's rebuilding timeline is measured in years, not weeks, and tonight should illustrate that reality clearly.

The Bottom Line: This is a straightforward talent mismatch between a developing Portland squad trending in the right direction and a Washington franchise that's going nowhere fast. The Blazers are the better team, have the better backcourt, and should control the game's tempo from the opening tip. The total sits right at the crossroads of two up-tempo teams, with the Wizards' historically awful defense likely pushing the action toward higher scoring.

Thirteen and a half points. That number tells you everything about where these two franchises stand right now. Sacramento's 12-35 record is an absolute disaster, and their 3-19 road mark is the stuff of nightmares. Since the blockbuster three-team trade that sent the former point guard to San Antonio and brought Zach LaVine from Sacramento, the Kings have been a franchise in freefall. their current roster's scoring ability hasn't been enough to offset the loss of the former point guard's playmaking, and Sacramento's offensive rating has cratered to 106.3, ranking 28th in the league. The chemistry simply isn't there yet, and the losses keep piling up.

New York is having a season, folks. The Knicks sit at 27-18 with a dominant 17-6 home record that's made Madison Square Garden one of the toughest buildings to play in. Jalen Brunson has been an All-Star caliber performer all year, and the depth Tom Thibodeau has assembled gives New York options at every position. Their defensive rating at home ranks 5th in the NBA, and the Garden crowd brings an energy that visiting teams simply can't replicate. This is a team built for the postseason, and they're proving it game by game.

Here's what's frightening for Sacramento: the Kings haven't won on the road in their last eight attempts, and their road defensive rating has ballooned to an absurd 121.7. They're basically giving away 120 points per game in hostile environments, and MSG is about as hostile as it gets. New York's ball movement, with Brunson orchestrating and shooters spread across the floor, should carve up Sacramento's porous defense with surgical precision.

The Bottom Line: This is one of the largest spreads you'll see in a regular season NBA game, and it speaks volumes about the disparity between these rosters. The Knicks are a legitimate contender playing at home, while Sacramento is one of the worst road teams in recent memory. The 231.5 total factors in the likelihood that New York controls tempo and both teams' offenses have enough firepower to pile up points. Sacramento's season is about the draft lottery at this point, and the Knicks are looking like a team ready for May and June.

The defending NBA champions are the class of the Western Conference again, and it isn't particularly close. Oklahoma City's 37-10 record is the best in the league, and their absurd 20-4 home record at Paycom Center makes this building one of the most daunting destinations in basketball. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his MVP-caliber campaign, orchestrating an offense that ranks 3rd in efficiency while doing it all on both ends of the floor. The Thunder's depth is ridiculous, with Chet Holmgren providing elite rim protection, Jalen Williams supplying secondary creation, and a bench unit that would start on half the league's rosters.

New Orleans at 12-36 is living through the worst season in recent franchise history. The Pelicans' 5-17 road record is catastrophic, and injuries have decimated what was supposed to be a playoff-caliber roster. Zion Williamson's availability has been predictably inconsistent, and without his gravity in the paint, the Pelicans' offense lacks an identity. Their defensive rating on the road sits at a ghastly 120.8, which means they're essentially handing opponents 120 points before the game even tips off.

The 14.5-point spread is the largest on tonight's slate, and honestly, it might not be big enough given how dominant OKC has been at home. The Thunder's home offensive rating of 119.6 is the best in the NBA, and they've won by double digits in 15 of their 20 home victories this season. That's not a typo. Three-quarters of their home wins have been by 10 or more points. The 233.5 total is elevated because OKC's offense is a machine that generates easy looks, and even against weak competition, they tend to keep the foot on the gas through three quarters.

The Bottom Line: This is the reigning champions at full strength, at home, against one of the league's worst teams. The 14.5 spread is enormous, but OKC's home dominance and New Orleans' road futility make it entirely justifiable. The Thunder have the depth to maintain intensity even with the game out of hand, while the Pelicans have shown no ability to compete in hostile environments. The total reflects the likelihood of a fast-paced, high-scoring affair driven primarily by OKC's offensive firepower.

the franchise has quietly put together a strong season in the post-Durant era. After trading Kevin Durant to Houston last summer, the Rockets were expected to enter a transitional period, but their 27-19 record tells a different story. The retooled roster has found a new identity built around Devin Booker's shot creation and Bradley Beal's secondary scoring, and the pieces the franchise received in the Durant trade have infused the roster with youth and athleticism. Their 14-6 home record at the Mortgage Matchup Center has been particularly impressive, with the team' home offensive rating climbing to 115.8.

Brooklyn's rebuilding project continues at a painful pace. The Nets sit at 12-32 with a 6-15 road record that offers no hope of competitive basketball in opposing arenas. Since the Durant era ended and the franchise pivoted to a full rebuild, the Nets have been accumulating draft picks and developing young talent. It's the right long-term strategy, but it makes for brutal viewing in the short term. Brooklyn's offensive rating of 105.4 ranks 29th in the league, and they struggle mightily to generate quality shots against competent defenses.

The 8.5-point spread feels about right for this matchup. Phoenix's home defense has been solid, allowing just 109.6 points per game, and Brooklyn simply doesn't have the shot creation to exploit any weaknesses. The 211.5 total is the lowest on the entire slate, and for good reason. The Nets play at one of the slowest paces in the league, and their games frequently devolve into half-court slugfests where neither team generates easy baskets. Phoenix will want to push the pace, but Brooklyn's deliberate approach tends to drag opponents down to their level, at least for stretches.

The Bottom Line: This is a competent home team against a rebuilding road squad, and the spread reflects that dynamic accurately. Phoenix has the talent advantage at every position, the home-court edge, and the motivation to keep winning as they chase a top-four seed in the West. The Nets are in the business of developing young players and losing games, and tonight should check both boxes. That 211.5 total is notably low, driven by Brooklyn's glacial pace and Phoenix's improved defensive effort at home.

The nightcap takes us to Salt Lake City for a matchup that looks like a mismatch on paper. The Clippers at 21-24 aren't having the season they envisioned, but they're a significantly more talented team than their record suggests. Kawhi Leonard's health management has limited his games played, and when he's in the lineup, LA looks like a completely different squad. James Harden continues to orchestrate one of the league's more efficient offenses, and the Clippers' offensive rating when their core is healthy ranks in the top eight. Their 8-15 road record is ugly, but context matters, as many of those losses came without their full complement of players.

Utah at 15-31 is right where most expected them to be: deep in the rebuilding process. The Jazz's 10-14 home record at Delta Center is a disappointment even by tanking standards, and the franchise is clearly focused on long-term development over short-term results. Lauri Markkanen has been excellent as the team's primary scoring option, but he's essentially a one-man army most nights. The Jazz rank 27th in assists per game and 26th in three-point percentage, two numbers that illustrate how much this roster lacks the connective tissue needed to compete consistently.

The 8.5-point spread makes LA comfortable road favorites, which is interesting given their struggles away from the Intuit Dome. This number suggests the market expects the Clippers to have their key players available, because a shorthanded LA team would not be laying 8.5 in any building. Utah's defensive rating at home has been surprisingly competitive at 112.8, but they fall apart when opponents attack them in transition, and the Clippers excel at pushing the pace after made baskets. The 231.5 total is the joint-highest on the slate, reflecting two teams that can score in bunches.

The Bottom Line: This late-night affair comes down to availability and effort. If the Clippers have their stars, the talent gap is enormous and 8.5 points barely covers the discrepancy. Utah's rebuilding roster doesn't have the defensive chops to contain Harden's pick-and-roll mastery, and Markkanen alone isn't enough to keep the Jazz competitive against a fully loaded opponent. The 231.5 total leans on both teams' offensive capabilities and Utah's defensive vulnerabilities. It's the kind of game where the Clippers should control the proceedings from start to finish, provided health cooperates.