NFL January 25, 2026

The Injury That Changed Everything

This was supposed to be Broncos Country's coronation. The top seed in the AFC, a 14-3 regular season masterpiece orchestrated by the electrifying Bo Nix, and a home game in the thin Denver air where opponents wilt in January. Then came the Divisional Round against Buffalo, a 33-30 overtime thriller that delivered a win and devastating news in equal measure: Nix's fractured ankle will require season-ending surgery.

The Broncos will now hand the keys to Jarrett Stidham, who's making history for all the wrong reasons. With just four career starts to his name, he'll become the least-experienced starting quarterback in NFL conference championship game history. Stidham completed 9-of-12 passes for 81 yards after Nix went down against Buffalo, but relief duty against a prevent defense is a far cry from leading your team to the Super Bowl.

Patriots' Path to Redemption

For New England, this feels like a coronation delayed too long. The Patriots went 14-3 themselves, earning the No. 2 seed, and they haven't reached a Super Bowl since Tom Brady departed. Drake Maye has emerged as the heir apparent to the dynasty, posting a 103.2 passer rating this season with 32 touchdowns against just 9 interceptions. His composure in the pocket and ability to extend plays has drawn inevitable Brady comparisons, though the coaching staff insists on letting the young quarterback forge his own legacy.

The Patriots defense ranks 3rd in DVOA, anchored by a pass rush that's generated 49 sacks this season. They'll be teeing off on Stidham, who doesn't possess Nix's escapability or arm talent. Denver's offensive line surrendered pressure on 32.7% of dropbacks this season, a number that balloons to 41.2% without Nix's scrambling ability serving as a release valve.

Broncos' Last Stand

Don't completely bury Denver just yet. Sean Payton has been here before, winning a Super Bowl with a backup quarterback who caught lightning in a bottle. The Broncos defense is legitimately elite, ranking 5th in DVOA with a secondary that's picked off 22 passes this season. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II is playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level, and he'll shadow whoever lines up as New England's No. 1 receiver.

The altitude factor cannot be ignored either. Teams visiting Empower Field average 3.7 fewer points than their season average, and the thin air impacts stamina in the fourth quarter. The Broncos are 9-1 at home this season, and their rushing attack featuring Javonte Williams (1,187 yards, 11 TDs) could keep the Patriots defense on the field and gas their pass rushers.

The Bottom Line

The lookahead line had Denver as 1.5-point favorites before Nix's injury. The market has overcorrected to Patriots -4.5, reflecting both the quarterback downgrade and the money pouring in on New England. The total of 42.5 is depressed for a conference championship, indicating expectations of a defensive slugfest. With Stidham under center, Denver's ceiling is capped, but their defense and home-field advantage give them a puncher's chance in what could be a rock fight at altitude.

The Rubber Match

For the third time this season, the NFC's two best teams by DVOA will collide, and this time there's a Super Bowl trip hanging in the balance. The Rams took the first meeting 21-19 in Los Angeles back in Week 11, forcing Sam Darnold into four interceptions on a rainy night at SoFi Stadium. The Seahawks exacted revenge in Week 16, storming back from a 30-14 fourth-quarter deficit to win 38-37 in overtime on their home turf.

The DVOA gap between these teams and the rest of the NFC is staggering. Seattle finished at 41.3%, Los Angeles at 39.9%. The next closest team? The Bears at 18.7%. This is a legitimate heavyweight fight between two complete football teams, and the winner will be the Super Bowl favorite regardless of who emerges from Denver.

Seattle's Historic Run

The Seahawks are riding an eight-game winning streak, including last week's 41-6 demolition of San Francisco in the divisional round. That game wasn't as close as the score suggests, either. Seattle held a 34-0 lead at halftime, prompting 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan to pull his starters early in the third quarter. The 35-point margin was the largest in divisional round history.

Sam Darnold's resurrection story has been remarkable. The former Jets bust has posted a 107.8 passer rating this season with 38 touchdowns. His connection with DK Metcalf (1,456 yards, 13 TDs) has become the most dangerous in football, and Kenneth Walker III has given them a ground game capable of closing out leads. Seattle is 11-2 straight up at home in the playoffs since 2005, and Lumen Field's infamous "12th Man" advantage is at full volume for championship Sunday.

The Rams' Road Warrior Mentality

The Rams, meanwhile, have proven they're built for hostile environments. Their 12-5 record came despite playing one of the NFL's toughest schedules, and they just escaped Chicago 20-17 in overtime during the divisional round. Matthew Stafford threw for 312 yards in that game, including a clutch 47-yard strike to Puka Nacua that set up the game-winning field goal.

What's concerning for Seattle: the Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Seahawks. The underdog has covered in seven of the last eight clashes between these teams. Los Angeles knows exactly what to expect from Mike Macdonald's defense, and Sean McVay has historically excelled when his team is counted out.

The Coaching Chess Match

McVay vs. Macdonald represents a fascinating stylistic contrast. McVay's offense is predicated on pre-snap motion and misdirection, while Macdonald's defense relies on disguised coverages and late rotations. In their two previous meetings, the team that forced more turnovers won. Seattle is +14 in turnover margin this season, while the Rams are +6.

The Rams' pass rush has been their calling card, generating 52 sacks this season led by second-year edge rusher Kobie Turner. But Seattle's offensive line has surrendered the 6th-fewest pressures in football, giving Darnold the clean pockets he needs to operate. Something will have to give in the trenches.

The Bottom Line

Seattle as a short home favorite feels right given their dominant stretch and home-field advantage. The 47.5 total is the highest of Conference Championship weekend, reflecting expectations of a shootout between two explosive offenses. The Rams have the playoff pedigree and road warrior mentality to pull the upset, but the Seahawks have been the NFC's best team for two months. In a series split 1-1 this year, home field could be the difference. Expect a game that comes down to the final possession, just like their Week 16 thriller.