NFL January 27, 2026

A Super Bowl No One Predicted

When the 2025 NFL season kicked off back in September, you could have gotten the Seahawks at +6000 and the Patriots anywhere from +6000 to +12500 to win the Super Bowl. This is the first Super Bowl in over 50 years between two teams that entered the season with at least 60-to-1 odds. Neither team was supposed to be here, and that's exactly what makes this matchup so compelling.

Seattle went 14-3 in Mike Macdonald's second season as head coach, building the NFL's best scoring defense at 16.4 points allowed per game. The Seahawks earned the NFC's No. 1 seed and steamrolled through the playoffs, demolishing San Francisco 41-6 in the Divisional Round before outlasting the Rams 31-27 in a thriller at Lumen Field. They're riding a nine-game winning streak and haven't lost since November.

New England's turnaround is arguably the most remarkable story in recent NFL history. The Patriots went from back-to-back 4-13 seasons to 14-3 under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, tying the 1999 Colts and 2008 Dolphins for the greatest single-season improvement ever. Drake Maye posted an MVP-caliber campaign with 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions while leading the league in passer rating (113.5) and completion percentage (72.0%). His postseason run through the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos has been more workmanlike than spectacular, but the kid finds ways to win.

Sam Darnold vs Drake Maye: Two Roads to the Same Stage

This quarterback matchup is a storyteller's dream. Sam Darnold is the 28-year-old journeyman who washed out of New York, bounced through Carolina and Minnesota, and landed in Seattle as a reclamation project. In his first season under Klint Kubiak's offense, he posted 4,048 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, reconnecting with the arm talent that made him the No. 3 overall pick back in 2018. He's yet to throw an interception this postseason. Five teams, eight seasons, and he's finally here.

Drake Maye is the polar opposite. The 23-year-old second-year quarterback out of North Carolina will be the youngest QB to start a Super Bowl since Dan Marino in 1985. He led the NFL in Total QBR (77.1), yards per attempt (8.93), and passer rating. He tied Mahomes for the most 100-plus passer rating games by a player under 24 in a single season. The regular season was electric. The postseason has been more grinding - he's been a game manager with a 35% passing success rate through three rounds - but his legs have bailed him out. He rushed for 65 yards in the AFC Championship and has had double-digit rushing yards in every game but one this season.

The contrast is fascinating. Darnold is the more accurate deep thrower. Maye is the better runner. Both finished top-two in yards per attempt this season (8.9 and 8.5). Both have something to prove on the sport's biggest stage, but for very different reasons.

The Defenses Define This Game

Forget the quarterbacks for a second. This Super Bowl will likely be decided by two suffocating defenses. Seattle's unit allowed the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season (16.4 per game) and then cranked it up even further in the playoffs. In the Divisional Round, they held the 49ers to a pair of field goals, forced three takeaways, and didn't allow San Francisco a single possession longer than 42 yards. They've gone 27 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher.

New England's defense has been equally ferocious in the postseason. Through three playoff games, the Patriots have allowed just two touchdowns and 209.7 yards per game while generating 12 sacks and seven takeaways. They beat the Chargers' offense, survived the Texans, and then suffocated Denver in a 10-7 rock fight at altitude. When the Patriots defense is locked in, they're as good as any unit in football.

Here's the key stat that separates them: Seattle ranks 5th in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on only 50% of opponent trips. New England ranks 30th, allowing touchdowns on 67.5% of trips. If Darnold can push the ball inside the 20 consistently, the Patriots' bend-don't-break approach might not hold up. Conversely, Seattle's offense was just 21st in red zone efficiency (51.2%), meaning scoring could be a grind for both sides.

Key Matchup: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs Patriots Secondary

Seattle's offense runs through Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who put together one of the great breakout seasons in NFL history. The third-year wideout out of Ohio State led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,793 on 119 catches, adding 10 touchdowns. In the NFC Championship, he went for 10 catches, 153 yards, and a score against the Rams' elite secondary. He's impossible to bracket because Darnold can find him on every level of the field.

The Patriots will likely task Christian Gonzalez, their shutdown corner who sealed the AFC Championship with a late interception, with shadowing JSN. Gonzalez has been one of the best man-coverage corners in football all season, but Smith-Njigba's route-running and contested-catch ability make him a nightmare assignment for anyone. If Gonzalez can hold him to under 80 yards, New England will have a fighting chance. If JSN goes off for 120-plus, it could be a long night for the Pats.

The Running Game Wild Card

Seattle lost Zach Charbonnet to a season-ending ACL tear, making Kenneth Walker III the undisputed workhorse. Walker has been steady but unspectacular, grinding out 62 yards on 19 carries in the NFC Championship. Against New England's defense, which has been stout against the run all postseason, Seattle may need Walker to be more than a complementary piece. His ability to convert short-yardage situations and keep chains moving will determine how often Darnold gets favorable down-and-distance.

On the other side, Rhamondre Stevenson has been New England's battering ram all season. The Patriots built their playoff identity around ball control and clock management, and Stevenson's ability to grind out yards keeps Maye from having to carry the entire load. If New England can establish the run early and control time of possession, they can keep Seattle's explosive offense on the sideline.

The Coaching Edge

Mike Vrabel played in four Super Bowls with the Patriots, winning three as a linebacker and catching a clutch touchdown in Super Bowl XXXVIII. He's the first person in NFL history to both start in a conference championship win as a player and win a conference championship as a head coach of the same franchise. His offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, has been on the sideline for eight Super Sundays and owns six rings. That institutional knowledge and big-game experience is invaluable.

Mike Macdonald and Klint Kubiak have been to exactly one Super Bowl between them. Seattle's coaching staff is brilliant schematically but lacks the championship pedigree that New England's brain trust brings. In a game where nerves and preparation often matter more than talent, that experience gap could prove decisive.

Historical Context: The Rematch

Seahawks and Patriots fans don't need to be reminded: these two teams met in Super Bowl XLIX, where Malcolm Butler's iconic goal-line interception sealed a 28-24 New England victory. Pete Carroll's decision to pass instead of handing off to Marshawn Lynch at the 1-yard line remains the most debated play-call in Super Bowl history. Different coaches, different rosters, different era. But the storyline writes itself. Seattle has unfinished business.

The Bottom Line

Seattle opened as a 3.5-point favorite and 5, reflecting both public confidence in the NFC's top seed and value is on the Seahawks' elite defense. The total of 46.5 suggests oddsmakers expect a competitive but not explosive game, which tracks with two of the NFL's best defensive units squaring off. The Super Bowl MVP market has Darnold as the +130 favorite, followed by Maye at +235 and Smith-Njigba at +550.

Don't sleep on the underdog trends, though. Underdogs have covered five straight Super Bowls and won three straight outright. AFC teams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 Super Bowls. And the Patriots have the coaching pedigree, the young franchise quarterback, and the defense to make this a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter. This is shaping up to be one of the most compelling Super Bowl matchups in years - between two teams nobody saw coming and two quarterbacks with everything to prove.