NHL February 5, 2026

Buffalo has quietly turned KeyBank Center into a legitimate fortress this season, and the Sabres' 32-18-6 record tells the story of a franchise that's finally figuring it out after years of futility. This is not the same laughingstock organization that tormented its fan base for the better part of a decade. The Sabres are playing confident, structured hockey with a real identity on both sides of the puck, and the results have been undeniable.

Pittsburgh rolls into town with a deceptive 28-15-12 record that looks respectable on the surface but masks some real concerns. Those 12 overtime losses are a red flag, suggesting the Penguins consistently find themselves unable to close games out in regulation. Sidney Crosby continues to defy Father Time in remarkable fashion, but the roster around him has thinned out considerably over the years. The Penguins still lean heavily on their aging stars, and that's a formula that wears thin over the grind of 82 games.

The -125 moneyline for Buffalo at home feels right, maybe even a touch generous for a team with this kind of home record. Pittsburgh catching +105 has appeal purely because of Crosby's ability to elevate everyone around him, but the Sabres have the deeper, younger, faster roster in this matchup. The 6.5 total is intriguing given both teams' willingness to push the pace. Buffalo's power play has been clicking, and the Penguins' penalty kill has been shaky on the road, which could open the floodgates if Pittsburgh gets undisciplined.

This feels like a game where the Sabres' home ice advantage and depth make the difference. Pittsburgh will keep it competitive through sheer will and Crosby magic, but Buffalo should be able to control the territorial battle and generate enough high-danger chances to pull away in the third period. The KeyBank Center crowd has been electric this season, and that energy matters in February hockey.

The Hudson River rivalry gets another chapter Thursday night, and this one shapes up as a genuine coin flip. The Islanders at 31-21-5 have been one of the surprise teams in the Metropolitan Division, playing a disciplined, defense-first system that grinds opponents into dust. New Jersey's 28-26-2 record is a massive disappointment for a franchise that entered the season with legitimate Cup aspirations after loading up on talent over the past few offseasons.

The pick-em moneyline at -110 on both sides tells you everything about how the market views this matchup. Neither team commands respect as a clear favorite, and in rivalry games that physicality and emotion can override whatever the numbers say on paper. The Islanders have thrived as a team that doesn't beat itself, keeping games tight and relying on their goaltending and structure to win low-scoring affairs. New Jersey has the raw offensive firepower to blow games open, but their defensive inconsistency has been maddening all year.

The 5.5 total leans under given the Islanders' suffocating defensive approach. New York plays a brand of hockey that slows games to a crawl, clogging the neutral zone and limiting transition opportunities. The Devils will need to generate offense through sustained zone pressure rather than rush chances, and that's not always been their strength. Expect a physical, tightly contested rivalry game where every goal feels like it takes a Herculean effort to score.

Jersey's home ice at the Prudential Center could be the swing factor. The Devils have been better at home than their overall record suggests, and the crowd will be ready for a divisional battle against a hated rival. Still, the Islanders are built for exactly these types of games. Don't be surprised if this one goes to overtime.

Ottawa's been one of those frustrating teams to follow this season. The Senators at 27-22-7 have the talent to compete with anyone on any given night, but the consistency just hasn't been there. Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk give Ottawa two legitimate star forwards who can take over games, and Linus Ullmark has provided stability in net. The pieces are there for a playoff push, but the Senators keep stumbling in games they should win.

Philadelphia's 25-20-10 record is one of the more interesting stories in the league. Those 10 overtime losses tell you the Flyers are competitive in almost every game they play but can't find a way to finish teams off in the extra session. The Wells Fargo Center crowd has been reinvigorated this season after years of watching unwatchable hockey, and there's a genuine buzz building around this young core. Matvei Michkov's emergence has been a revelation for the franchise.

The 6.5 total screams offense, and both teams have the attacking talent to push this one into high-scoring territory. Ottawa's defensive structure has been suspect on the road, and Philadelphia's transition game has been sharp enough to capitalize on turnovers. This has the makings of a track meet where both goaltenders are going to be busy all night long. The Senators being -135 road favorites is a slight edge, but the Flyers at +114 at home with their young talent is a compelling price.

Don't sleep on the energy factor here. Philly's crowd has been rocking this season, and a Thursday night divisional matchup is exactly the kind of atmosphere that can lift a team playing above expectations. Ottawa needs to come in focused and disciplined, or the Wells Fargo Center faithful will turn this into a hostile environment quickly.

Alex Ovechkin's pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's all-time goal record continues to be one of the best storylines in all of sports, and every game at Capital One Arena feels like it could be a date with history. Washington at 28-23-7 isn't the powerhouse Caps teams of a decade ago, but they've found a way to stay competitive and relevant in the Metropolitan Division. The supporting cast around Ovechkin has been good enough to keep the Capitals in the playoff conversation while the Great Eight chases immortality.

Nashville at 26-23-7 entered the season expecting to contend after spending big in free agency, but the Predators have been one of the league's most frustrating underperformers. The talent is there on paper, but translating that into on-ice results has been a struggle all season. Their save percentage has been below league average, and the defensive breakdowns have been alarming for a team that was supposed to be structured and disciplined. Nashville's road record has been particularly brutal.

Washington at -162 is the right side here, but it's not a steal. The Capitals have been solid at home, and their power play has shown enough bite to punish opponents who take penalties. Nashville's penalty kill has been shaky, which creates a potential mismatch that Washington can exploit. The 6.5 total feels accurate given both teams' tendency to play open, up-and-down hockey. Neither defense inspires much confidence in a low-scoring affair.

The intangible factor here is the energy around Ovechkin's goal chase. Every home game feels like an event in Washington right now, and the crowd feeds the Capitals an extra gear that they don't always get on the road. Nashville coming in as road underdogs with their season slowly slipping away isn't an ideal spot. The Predators need a win, but Capital One Arena isn't the place most teams find answers.

The night cap brings us a Pacific Division clash between two teams fighting for playoff positioning, and the addition of Mitch Marner to the Golden Knights' roster last summer has completely changed the complexion of this rivalry. Marner, acquired from the Maple Leafs in July 2025, has brought an elite playmaking dimension to a Vegas offense that already had plenty of weapons. His vision and passing ability have elevated the Knights' power play into one of the league's most dangerous units, and the chemistry he's built with his new linemates has been seamless. T-Mobile Arena has been rocking all season.

Los Angeles at 23-18-14 is the league leader in overtime games played, which tells you everything about how tight and competitive the Kings are night after night. Those 14 overtime losses are frustrating, but they also illustrate a team that refuses to get blown out. Anze Kopitar continues to anchor this franchise with his two-way excellence, and the Kings' defensive structure under Todd McLellan gives them a chance in every single game. Their Fenwick-against numbers have been solid, suggesting their goaltending has been the bigger issue in close games.

Vegas at -130 at home is a fair price, not a steal. The Golden Knights at 26-16-14 have been strong at T-Mobile Arena, but those 14 overtime losses mirror the same issue Los Angeles deals with, these two teams play incredibly tight, competitive games that frequently go past regulation. The 5.5 total is the lowest on the entire slate, and it reflects how both teams prioritize defensive responsibility. Expect a chess match with limited odd-man rushes and a heavy emphasis on structure.

The key matchup to watch is the Kings' penalty kill against Vegas's Marner-powered power play. Los Angeles has been disciplined enough to limit penalties this season, but when they do go short-handed, the results haven't been pretty. If the Kings can stay out of the box and keep this game at 5-on-5, they have the defensive chops to frustrate Vegas all night. But one undisciplined penalty, and Marner will make them pay. This is a grinder that could easily go to overtime, so buckle up for a late finish.