NHL January 16, 2026

Patrick Kane said it best after Thursday's practice: "He's obviously the main focus. He's the main guy offensively for that team; he's been carrying them all year." The "he" is Macklin Celebrini, and Kane isn't exaggerating. The 19-year-old phenom sits third in the entire NHL with 70-71 points in 46 games, including 24 goals and 46-47 assists. He's not just winning Calder Trophy buzz, he's getting MVP mentions. For a teenager. On a team that was supposed to be a lottery lock.

Here's what makes this line interesting: Detroit (-245) beat San Jose 3-2 in a shootout back on November 2nd in San Jose. That close result suggests less separation than this moneyline implies. The Sharks (23-19-3) are legitimately good now, holding the second wild card spot in the Western Conference after being the league's worst team last season (20-50-12). AccuScore simulations give Detroit a 60.7% win probability, which translates to fair odds around -155, not -245. There's value on the underdog here.

The total has moved to 6.0 with the over at -121, reflecting expectation of offense. Celebrini is projected for 3.5 shots on goal with a 45% chance of recording at least one point. Detroit's goaltending shows a projected 90.5% save percentage versus San Jose's 89.1%, which explains the line discrepancy. But the Red Wings are 4-6-1 against teams with winning records, and Celebrini was just named to Team Canada's Olympic roster. Big-game player, big-game spot.

The Play: San Jose +1.5 (-125). This line is too steep for what should be a competitive game. The Sharks have covered the puck line in 5 of their last 7 road games as +180 or greater underdogs. Detroit wins more often than not at home, but Celebrini keeps this close. Take the goal insurance.

This is the game of the night, and the market knows it. Carolina (-170) hosting the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Panthers at Lenovo Center is appointment viewing. Florida (24-18 overall, 14-9 away) has been maddeningly inconsistent, while Carolina (28-15, 16-8 at home) has been the model of structured excellence. The Hurricanes at home are a different animal, suffocating opponents with their trademark defensive system.

The total tells the story here: 5.5 goals with the over at -132 and the under at +108. The market is tilting toward offense but not by much. Carolina has held opponents to 2 or fewer goals in 8 of their last 12 home games, which is elite. Their defensive structure forces opponents into low-percentage shots from the perimeter. Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled with an .881 save percentage through 32 starts. That's not championship-caliber goaltending.

But here's the contrarian case for Florida: the puck line at +1.5 (-180) offers significant insurance for a team that's been in every big game for two years. These teams know each other intimately from playoff battles. Out of 163 all-time meetings, Carolina leads 79-73-11. These games are tight. Florida is 2-4 in their last 6 against winning teams, but championship DNA doesn't disappear.

The Play: Under 5.5 (+108). This has "2-1" or "3-2" written all over it. Carolina's home defensive metrics are elite, and Florida's inconsistency has led to low-event hockey lately. The under has hit in 4 of the last 6 Panthers road games. Take the plus-money under in what should be a grinding, playoff-style chess match.

Stop me if you've heard this before: Tampa Bay is rolling. The Lightning (29-13-3) are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games, 7-0 on the road, and 6-2 against St. Louis head-to-head. Jon Cooper's squad leads the Atlantic Division and looks every bit like a Stanley Cup contender. These aren't just wins, they're dominant performances. Tampa is taking care of business with ruthless efficiency.

St. Louis (18-21-8) is drowning. The Blues rank 31st in goals scored (2.5 per game), 29th in goals allowed (3.4 per game), and their -42 goal differential is 31st in the NHL. That's not a playoff team. That's a team wondering where it all went wrong. The Enterprise Center has offered no sanctuary, and now they host one of the hottest teams in hockey.

The line sits at Tampa -180/-181 with St. Louis +150/+151. The total is 5.5 goals. Given Tampa's offensive firepower and the Blues' defensive deficiencies, the over feels right. But here's the thing: the under has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Tampa doesn't always blow bad teams out. They're content to win 3-1 or 4-2 and move on.

The Play: Tampa Bay -1.5 puck line. This is a team annihilation in progress. The Lightning have covered the puck line in 6 of their last 8 games against Central Division opponents. St. Louis is 1-5 at home against Eastern Conference teams. Tampa wins this by 2+ goals and cruises to their 11th straight victory.

19-0-3 at home. Read that again. Colorado hasn't lost a regulation game at Ball Arena all season. No other NHL team has fewer than five regulation losses at home. The Avalanche (33-4-8) are the most dominant home team in hockey by a margin that's almost hard to comprehend. Nashville, good luck. You're going to need it.

Nathan MacKinnon is having a season for the history books. He's at 81 points (36 goals, 45 assists), second in NHL scoring and first in goals. Here's the truly insane stat: MacKinnon has 26 multi-point games through 45 team games, the most by any NHL player at this point in a season since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. Lemieux. That's the company he's keeping. Add Cale Makar (53 points, first among defensemen) and Mackenzie Blackwood (.924 save percentage, first among goalies), and this team has no weaknesses.

Nashville (22-20-4) just beat Edmonton 4-3, so they're riding some confidence. Steven Stamkos has 20 goals, bringing championship DNA from his Tampa days. But the Predators are 9-10-2 on the road and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against winning teams. Colorado leads the NHL in points (74), wins (33), goals per game (4.02), and allows the fewest goals per game (2.20). This is a mismatch.

The Play: Colorado -1.5 (-115). The Avalanche have covered the puck line in 9 of their last 11 home games. MacKinnon has a point in 15 of his last 17 at Ball Arena. Nashville simply cannot compete with this team at altitude. Take the chalk and don't overthink it. Colorado rolls.

The Freeway Faceoff features two teams going in opposite directions. The Ducks (22-21-3) just beat Dallas 3-1 and have won 3 of their last 4 games. The Kings (19-16-11) lost 3-2 to Vegas and have been a disappointment at home all season. LA is 7-10 at Crypto.com Arena. For a team with playoff aspirations, that's a catastrophic home record.

Here's the number that should scare Kings bettors: the home team has lost 4 of the last 5 meetings between these rivals. The Ducks have won just 39% of their road games against the Kings historically, but this season is different. Anaheim is legitimately competitive with a 13-8 road record, one of the better marks in the Pacific Division. Leo Carlsson leads the way with 44 points (18 goals, 26 assists), and Cutter Gauthier has a team-high 20 goals.

The line sits at LA -165 with Anaheim +137. The total is 6.5 goals, which feels right given both teams' offensive capabilities. Los Angeles and their opponents have combined for more than 6.5 goals in 16 of 46 games (35%), suggesting the under has slight historical edge. But the Ducks have gone over in 5 of their last 6 road games, creating conflicting signals.

The Play: Anaheim +1.5 (-183). The Ducks are legitimately competitive and LA's home struggles are well-documented. This is a rivalry game where the underdog has owned the recent head-to-head. The Kings might win, but it'll be tight. Take the insurance and enjoy a competitive late-night Pacific Division battle.