NHL January 21, 2026

Wednesday's 6-game slate is highlighted by one of the most remarkable home records in recent NHL history. The Colorado Avalanche enter tonight's matchup against Anaheim with an absurd 19-0-3 record at Ball Arena, making them the only undefeated team at home in regulation this season. That's not a typo. Nineteen wins, zero regulation losses. The Avs lead the NHL in goals per game (4.02), shots on goal per game (34.4), and penalty kill percentage (85.8%). They're simply operating on a different level when they step onto their home ice.

The slate opens with an Original Six classic as Detroit travels to Toronto for game number 301 in the all-time series between these storied franchises. The Maple Leafs hold a 147-130 edge historically, but the Red Wings have been the surprise of 2025-26, sitting at 30-16-4 and firmly in the playoff picture. Detroit's power play has been electric, converting at a 25.16% clip with 40 goals on 159 opportunities. Their goaltending has been the question mark, with a .892 team save percentage that ranks among the league's worst, but the offense has more than compensated.

The late windows feature some intriguing matchups as well. The Penguins visit Calgary in a battle of teams on the playoff bubble, the Islanders head to Seattle looking to stay relevant in the Metropolitan race, and the Capitals close out the night in Vancouver. Alex Ovechkin continues his march toward Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record, and every game could be the night he writes another chapter in hockey history. Six games, plenty of storylines, and some fascinating advanced metrics to dive into.

Historical Rivalry Meets Modern Playoff Implications

There's something special about Original Six matchups, and this one carries real weight. The Detroit Red Wings (30-16-4) have been one of the league's most pleasant surprises, sitting comfortably in the Atlantic Division playoff picture with a team nobody expected to contend this soon. Their rebuild has accelerated thanks to the emergence of Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, both of whom have taken massive leaps in their development. Detroit's 12-8-3 road record is strong, and they've proven they can win in hostile environments against quality opponents.

Toronto (24-17-8) has been maddeningly inconsistent, which is nothing new for a franchise that seems perpetually unable to meet its regular season potential. The Maple Leafs are a dominant 16-6-5 at Scotiabank Arena, where the crowd provides a significant boost. They've scored 165 goals this season, good for 3.4 per game and 5th in the NHL, but their defense has been problematic, allowing 163 goals (3.3 per game, 27th in the league). That's the Leafs' Achilles heel: they can outscore problems, but they can't always out-defend them.

Detroit's Special Teams Edge

Here's where this gets interesting. Detroit's power play has been absolutely lethal this season, converting at 25.16% with 40 goals on 159 opportunities. That's a top-10 rate league-wide, and it's a far cry from the anemic power plays Detroit trotted out during their rebuilding years. The man advantage has been fueled by Raymond's vision, Seider's point shot, and Dylan Larkin's net-front presence. If Toronto takes penalties, and they've been undisciplined at times this season, the Red Wings can make them pay.

The concern for Detroit is goaltending. A .892 team save percentage is genuinely problematic, ranking among the league's worst. Ville Husso and Alex Lyon have split duties without either establishing clear dominance. Against a Toronto offense that features Auston Matthews and William Nylander, that's a recipe for trouble. The Leafs have adjusted since trading their former winger to Vegas in July, with Matthews taking on an even heavier offensive burden. The Leafs generate high-danger chances at an elite rate, and if Detroit's goalies aren't sharp, this could turn into a track meet that favors the home team.

The Total Outlook

With Toronto allowing 3.3 goals per game and Detroit's goaltending issues well-documented, the 6.5 total feels like it's in the right neighborhood. Both teams can score, neither has been particularly stingy defensively, and the pace of Original Six matchups tends to be elevated. Toronto's home games have gone over 6.5 combined goals in 54% of contests this season, and Detroit's road games tell a similar story. If you're looking at this from a totals perspective, the over has merit based on the defensive vulnerabilities both teams have shown.

The Avalanche Home Ice Fortress

Let's talk about what Colorado is doing at home, because it borders on absurd. The Avalanche (33-4-8) are 19-0-3 at Ball Arena. That's nineteen wins, zero regulation losses, and three overtime/shootout defeats in 22 home games. Nobody has beaten them in regulation on their own ice all season. The last time we saw this kind of home dominance, you have to go back decades. And it's not just that they're winning, it's how they're winning: Colorado leads the entire NHL in goals per game (4.02), goals against per game (2.2), shots on goal per game (34.4), and penalty kill percentage (85.8%). They're quite literally the best at everything that matters.

Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar continue to be the heartbeat of this juggernaut, but the depth has been even more impressive than in previous years. The Avalanche can roll four lines and create problems at every shift. Their Corsi For percentage at home sits above 56%, indicating they're controlling possession at an elite rate. When they have the puck, they're generating high-danger chances. When they don't, they're suffocating opponents with an aggressive forecheck that forces turnovers in the neutral zone.

Anaheim's Uphill Battle

The Ducks (22-21-3) have exceeded expectations this season, but this matchup exposes every weakness in their game. Anaheim's 9-13-2 road record tells the story: they can compete at Honda Center, but traveling to face elite competition has been a struggle. The Ducks score 3.24 goals per game, which sounds respectable until you realize they're allowing 3.67 per game, good for 32nd in the NHL. Against a Colorado team that's averaging over 4 goals at home, that's a concerning differential.

The young Ducks have shown flashes, and guys like Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras can create offense on any given night. But there's a reason FOX's model is predicting a 5-2 Avalanche victory tonight. Colorado's defensive structure is elite, their goaltending has been excellent, and they simply don't make the mistakes that allow rebuilding teams to hang around. Anaheim will need to play a near-perfect game to have a chance, and even then, the altitude and the crowd at Ball Arena make it incredibly difficult for visitors.

The Puck Line Question

Here's where the value discussion gets interesting. Colorado -1.5 at -145 seems steep, but consider this: the Avalanche have won by 2+ goals in 14 of their 19 home victories this season. They don't just beat teams at Ball Arena; they demolish them. Their average margin of victory at home is 2.4 goals. Anaheim's road defense, which allows nearly 4 goals per game away from Honda Center, profiles as exactly the type of opponent Colorado feasts on. The puck line has real merit here if you believe the Avalanche's historic home dominance continues.

Total Analysis

The 6.5 total is intriguing because it accounts for Anaheim's leaky defense but perhaps underestimates Colorado's ability to suppress scoring. The Avs allow just 2.2 goals per game, and their penalty kill doesn't give opponents free opportunities. If this turns into a 5-1 or 4-1 game, as many Colorado home games do, the under could sneak through. The over requires Anaheim to find 3+ goals against one of the league's best defenses, which has happened but isn't the norm. I'd lean under if forced to choose, simply because Colorado's defensive numbers are so elite.

Utah's First Season Creates Unique Dynamics

The Utah Hockey Club's inaugural season has been a fascinating case study in how a relocated franchise can find its footing. The former Arizona Coyotes are now playing in front of sold-out crowds at Delta Center, and the energy in Salt Lake City has exceeded even the most optimistic projections. Utah has embraced their new team with hockey-mad enthusiasm, and the home-ice advantage has been real. The Hockey Club has been competitive in most games, though their roster still has the limitations that existed before the move.

What's interesting about Utah is their blend of veteran leadership and young talent. Clayton Keller remains the offensive catalyst, but players like Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley represent the future. The goaltending tandem of Karel Vejmelka and Connor Ingram has been serviceable, though neither has established true starter status. Utah's underlying numbers suggest they're about league average in most categories, which makes their home matchups against Eastern Conference teams particularly intriguing since familiarity is low.

Philadelphia's Road Woes Continue

The Flyers (23-22-5) have been stuck in mediocrity all season, unable to separate from the pack but also unwilling to fully tank. Their 9-14-3 road record is concerning, and traveling to altitude in Salt Lake City for a late start adds another layer of difficulty. Travis Konecny has been excellent, emerging as a legitimate All-Star caliber player, but the supporting cast has been inconsistent. The goaltending has improved with Samuel Ersson's development, but Philly still allows nearly 3 goals per game on the road.

The Flyers' underlying metrics paint a picture of a team that's often outchanced but occasionally steals games through goaltending and special teams. Their Corsi For percentage on the road drops below 47%, indicating they spend significant time defending. Against a Utah team looking to establish home-ice credibility, that's a dangerous profile. The Hockey Club has been surprisingly disciplined, taking fewer penalties than expected, which limits Philadelphia's power play opportunities.

The Situational Edge

This is the classic trap game setup for Philadelphia: a late start against a team with limited NHL history, in a building that's developing its own atmosphere. Utah desperately wants to prove they belong in this market, and every home win builds that case. The Flyers, meanwhile, are in the mushy middle of the standings with unclear direction. Games like this often go to the team with more motivation, and right now, that's Utah. The altitude, the crowd, and the schedule spot all favor the home team.

Total Considerations

The 6.0 total is the lowest on the board tonight, reflecting the expectation that this won't be a barnburner. Both teams defend reasonably well when engaged, and neither has the offensive firepower to consistently hit 4+ goals. Utah's home games have trended toward the under as they've settled into a defensive identity. The under has merit here, but the juice suggests the market agrees. I'd look at this as a potential 3-2 or 4-2 type game with the home team holding a slight edge.

The Crosby Watch Continues

Every Pittsburgh road game feels like it could be the last time fans in that city see Sidney Crosby play, and tonight's trip to Calgary carries that weight. Crosby, at 38, continues to defy Father Time with elite production, but the Penguins (23-20-6) have been unable to build a contending roster around him. The window has closed in Pittsburgh, and the question now is whether management will finally commit to a rebuild or continue trying to squeeze one more playoff run out of their aging core. Games like this, on a long Western road trip, highlight the roster's limitations.

Calgary (24-17-8) represents the opposite trajectory: a team that bottomed out and is now cautiously optimistic about its future. The Flames have found stability under Ryan Huska, and their young core of Rasmus Andersson and Yegor Sharangovich has shown real promise. Calgary's been strong at the Saddledome, where the altitude (though not as extreme as Denver) and the crowd create genuine home-ice advantage. Their 14-7-3 home record suggests they're a legitimately difficult out in their own building.

Pittsburgh's Road Trip Fatigue

The Penguins are in the midst of a challenging Western swing, and games at altitude later in road trips historically produce worse results for Eastern teams. Pittsburgh's 10-12-4 road record isn't terrible, but they've struggled against teams in the Western playoff race. The Penguins' defensive structure has been inconsistent, and Tristan Jarry's goaltending has fluctuated between stellar and concerning. Against a Calgary team that's been patient and opportunistic at home, those defensive lapses could be costly.

One area to watch: Pittsburgh's power play has been clicking at around 21%, but Calgary's penalty kill has been one of the league's better units. If the Penguins can't generate power play goals, their offensive ceiling is significantly lower. Crosby and Evgeni Malkin can still produce magic at 5v5, but the supporting cast has aged out of their prime, and the depth scoring that championship teams need simply isn't there anymore.

The Value Angle

Pittsburgh at +115 on the moneyline is interesting for those who believe in Crosby's ability to will his team to victories. The Penguins have been resilient in close games, and their experience in big moments gives them an edge that doesn't show up in advanced stats. However, the travel factor and Calgary's home dominance make the Flames the right side. This profiles as a tight, low-scoring affair where special teams and goaltending decide the outcome.

Total Breakdown

The 6.0 total suggests oddsmakers expect a chess match, not a track meet. Both teams defend reasonably well when engaged, and neither is a dominant offensive force. Pittsburgh's games on the road have gone under 6.0 in 57% of contests this season, and Calgary's home games tell a similar story. The Saddledome doesn't produce high-scoring games the way some other Western buildings do. I'd lean toward the under if Calgary's goaltender is confirmed as the starter and both teams play to their defensive identities.

Metropolitan Division Playoff Implications

The Islanders (24-17-7) find themselves in an interesting position: good enough to contend but not quite elite enough to be considered a serious threat. That's been the story in Long Island for years now, and it continues into 2025-26. Their defensive structure under Lane Lambert remains solid, but the offense has been inconsistent. Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson anchor the attack, but the secondary scoring has dried up at times, making it difficult to overcome deficits against quality opponents.

Seattle (22-23-4) has been disappointing after last season's playoff appearance. The Kraken were expected to take another step forward, but instead they've regressed toward the middle of the Western Conference pack. Climate Pledge Arena remains one of the league's most electric buildings, and the home crowd gives Seattle genuine energy, but the on-ice product hasn't matched the fan enthusiasm. Their underlying numbers suggest they're a slightly below-average team that can beat inferior opponents but struggles against playoff-caliber competition.

The Goaltending Matchup

This game could come down to which goaltender steals it. Ilya Sorokin has been the Islanders' backbone all season, posting elite numbers behind a defense that protects the house extremely well. The Isles' system is designed to limit high-danger chances, and when Sorokin is locked in, they're among the league's toughest outs. Seattle's Joey Daccord has been solid but not spectacular, and the Kraken's defensive structure in front of him has been inconsistent at best.

The Islanders' cross-country travel is worth monitoring. They're coming from the East Coast for a late start in the Pacific time zone, and these schedule spots historically produce fatigue-related letdowns. Seattle should have the legs advantage, and Climate Pledge Arena's atmosphere can overwhelm tired opponents. The crowd's energy during Kraken power plays has produced real results, converting home-ice noise into offensive opportunities.

Total Analysis

The 5.5 total is the lowest on Wednesday's slate, and it's appropriately set. Both teams prioritize defense over offensive fireworks, and neither has the high-end talent to consistently light up the scoreboard. The Islanders play a structured, grinding style that drags games into the mud, while Seattle's best games have been tight, competitive affairs. The under has hit in 58% of Islanders road games this season, and Seattle's home games have trended similarly. This profiles as a 3-2 or 2-1 type game.

The Great Chase Continues

Every Washington Capitals game carries extra weight this season because we're witnessing history in real time. Alex Ovechkin, at 40 years old, continues his relentless march toward Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record of 894. Ovechkin entered 2025-26 needing fewer than 50 goals to reach immortality, and he's been scoring at a pace that suggests he could get there by season's end. Tonight's game in Vancouver offers another opportunity for the Russian Rocket to add to his legendary total in front of a West Coast audience that rarely gets to see him play.

The Capitals (30-14-5) have been one of the league's surprise contenders, playing well beyond their preseason expectations. Washington's supporting cast has stepped up around Ovechkin, with Dylan Strome emerging as a legitimate first-line center and the blue line getting contributions from John Carlson and the younger defenders. Their 17-6-2 home record is elite, but even on the road (13-8-3), they've been competitive. The Caps play a hard-nosed, physical style that travels well.

Vancouver's Home Ice Advantage

The Canucks (26-19-4) have been strong at Rogers Arena, posting a 15-9-2 record in their own building. Since the December blockbuster that sent Quinn Hughes to Minnesota, Zeev Buium has stepped into a larger role on the blue line, and the power play has remained effective. Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller provide the offensive punch, while Thatcher Demko has been excellent when healthy. The Canucks' system emphasizes puck possession and transition speed, creating problems for opponents who try to play a grinding style against them.

Vancouver's underlying numbers suggest they're a legitimate playoff team capable of making a run in the Pacific Division. Their Corsi For percentage at home sits above 53%, indicating they're controlling play. The crowd at Rogers Arena has been engaged all season, and late-night starts against tired Eastern Conference opponents have historically favored the home team. The travel factor is real: Washington is coming from the East Coast for a 10 PM ET start, and the Canucks should have fresher legs.

The Situational Context

Cross-country travel is the elephant in the room for this matchup. The Capitals have been excellent all season, but road games in the Pacific time zone against quality opponents are the toughest test in hockey. Vancouver's home dominance, combined with Washington's travel disadvantage, creates a setup that favors the Canucks. However, fading a team with Alex Ovechkin, especially during his historic chase, always feels uncomfortable. The Caps have a way of elevating for big moments.

Total Breakdown

The 6.0 total reflects the expectation that both teams will play structured hockey. Vancouver's defense has tightened at home, and Washington's system under Spencer Carbery limits high-danger chances. Both goaltenders have been solid this season, and the pace of West Coast late games tends to be more measured than high-flying afternoon contests. The under has merit if you believe both teams prioritize defense in this spot. However, the star power on both sides, Ovechkin's relentless pursuit and Hughes' offensive brilliance, could push this over if special teams get involved.