NHL Analysis - January 24, 2026

The matinee opener features a Buffalo Sabres team that has quietly put together an impressive 28-17 record, surprising many who wrote them off before the season. Tage Thompson continues to be the offensive catalyst, and the Sabres have found consistency they lacked in previous campaigns. Their road record has been solid, and they're playing with the confidence of a team that believes it can compete with anyone on any given night.

The Islanders, meanwhile, have been struggling to find their footing this season. The defensive structure that made them a playoff contender in years past has slipped, and the offense hasn't been able to compensate. Ilya Sorokin has had his moments between the pipes, but the goal support hasn't been there consistently. UBS Arena has been a tough place for opponents historically, but the Isles haven't been able to capitalize on home ice like they did in the Lou Lamoriello glory days.

The analytics favor Buffalo here. Their Corsi and Fenwick numbers suggest they're controlling play at a higher rate than their opponents, and their expected goals for (xGF) rate has been solid. The Sabres' power play has clicked at a respectable rate, while their penalty kill has been above league average. New York's special teams have been inconsistent, which is concerning when facing a team that generates quality chances at 5-on-5.

This line feels like it's hanging on the Islanders' reputation rather than their current form. Buffalo at +102 represents value for a team that's legitimately better than their opponent right now. The Sabres should be able to control pace, generate quality chances, and take advantage of an Islanders team that's searching for answers.

Utah Hockey Club makes the trip to Nashville in what's become a fascinating matchup between two teams in very different situations. The Utah franchise, in their first season after relocating from Arizona, has been working to establish an identity while developing their young core. Clayton Keller remains the offensive leader, and the team has shown flashes of competitiveness even as they navigate the challenges of a new market and new expectations.

Nashville has been one of the more disappointing teams in the league this season. The Predators were expected to contend, but they've struggled to find consistency despite having proven talent like Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, and Steven Stamkos. Their underlying metrics have been concerning, with possession numbers suggesting they're getting outplayed more often than not. Juuse Saros has kept them in games, but even elite goaltending can only mask so many issues for so long.

Bridgestone Arena remains one of the best atmospheres in hockey, and Nashville typically responds well to the energy of their home crowd. The Predators' power play has been dangerous when clicking, led by their quartet of skilled forwards. However, their penalty kill has been exploitable, and their defensive zone breakouts have been sloppy. Utah has the speed to capitalize on those turnovers.

This is a game between two teams trying to figure things out. Nashville has more pressure to win given their expectations, while Utah is playing with house money as they build for the future. The Predators should have the edge at home, but this could be closer than the market expects if Utah's young legs can match Nashville's pace for 60 minutes.

Few rivalries in sports carry the weight of Bruins-Canadiens. This Original Six matchup transcends standings and statistics, dating back over a century of hatred, memorable playoff series, and unforgettable moments. Montreal comes in at an impressive 28-16, far exceeding preseason expectations behind the continued development of Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. The young core is playing with swagger, and the Canadiens have proven they can compete with anyone when their game is clicking.

Boston sits at 29-20, a respectable record but one that hasn't felt as comfortable as Bruins fans would like. The departure of Brad Marchand's prime years has left a void in their top-six, though David Pastrnak continues to produce at an elite level. Jeremy Swayman has been solid in net, but the Bruins' five-on-five play has been inconsistent. Their power play clicks at a decent rate, and their penalty kill remains stingy, but the depth scoring has dried up at times.

TD Garden will be absolutely electric for this one. The Bruins feed off their crowd against Montreal like few other opponents, and the intensity always ratchets up several notches when these two meet. Boston's physical style has traditionally given Montreal problems, though this Canadiens team has shown they won't be pushed around. The Habs have developed an edge to their game that was missing in previous rebuild years.

The even money on Montreal is interesting given they're the road team in a rivalry game. That suggests the market sees these teams as essentially equal right now, which the records support. Boston should have the slight edge at home, but Montreal has the offensive firepower to steal one if Caufield and Suzuki can find space against the Bruins' defense. Expect a physical, emotional, and tightly-contested affair.

Carolina brings their relentless forecheck and suffocating defensive structure to Ottawa for a matchup that could be more competitive than the line suggests. The Hurricanes have been one of the league's most consistent teams for years now, and this season has been no different. Sebastian Aho leads an offense that generates chances through volume, while their goaltending tandem of Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov gives them reliability between the pipes.

The Senators have been trying to take the next step for what feels like forever. Tim Stutzle has emerged as a legitimate star, and Brady Tkachuk brings energy and physicality every night. Ottawa has the talent to compete with anyone when everything comes together, but the consistency hasn't been there. Their home record has been decent, but the defensive breakdowns and goaltending inconsistency have kept them from stringing together the runs needed to climb the standings.

Carolina's process metrics are elite. Their Corsi and Fenwick numbers consistently rank among the league's best, and their expected goals differential shows a team that generates far more quality chances than they allow. The Hurricanes' power play has been clicking, and their penalty kill is among the best in the NHL. Ottawa's special teams have been a weakness, which is problematic against a team that capitalizes on every opportunity.

The Senators will bring energy and effort at home, but Carolina's structure and depth typically wear down opponents over 60 minutes. The Hurricanes control pace, limit transition opportunities, and make teams earn every inch of ice. Ottawa's skill can cause problems, but sustaining that for a full game against Carolina's system is a tall order.

Tampa Bay Lightning carry championship pedigree wherever they go, and while the back-to-back Cup teams of 2020 and 2021 have aged, the core of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman remains dangerous. The Lightning have been navigating the post-dynasty phase with mixed results, trying to balance competitive now with building for what comes next. Kucherov continues to produce at an elite level, keeping Tampa in the playoff conversation despite roster turnover.

Columbus has been one of the league's pleasant surprises, showing fight and competitiveness that wasn't expected from a rebuilding roster. Adam Fantilli has given the franchise hope for the future, and the Blue Jackets play with energy that makes them difficult to beat at Nationwide Arena. Their young legs and willingness to forecheck hard can cause problems for veteran-heavy teams that prefer a slower pace.

The Lightning's power play remains one of the NHL's most dangerous weapons when Kucherov is setting up teammates. Their five-on-five play has been less dominant than in their championship years, but the skill level is still there to break games open. Andrei Vasilevskiy has had stretches of vintage performances, though the workload over the years shows at times.

Columbus's home ice has been surprisingly tough for visitors this season. The Blue Jackets compete hard, generate energy from the crowd, and don't give opponents easy nights. Tampa has the higher talent ceiling, but this is a road game against a hungry team. The Lightning should prevail, but covering a spread in a building where Columbus fights for every puck won't be easy.

Detroit's remarkable 31-16 record has them firmly in the playoff picture and silencing doubters who thought the rebuild would take longer. The Red Wings have found the balance between their young stars and veteran presence that Steve Yzerman has been building toward. Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider have taken massive leaps, while Alex DeBrincat provides consistent offensive production. This is a team that plays the right way and has earned their record through process, not luck.

Winnipeg has been a machine at home, where Canada Life Centre becomes one of the toughest buildings in hockey. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele form one of the league's most dangerous top lines, and Connor Hellebuyck, when healthy, is a Vezina-caliber goaltender. The Jets' depth scoring has improved, and their defensive structure under Rick Bowness has given them an identity that travels well.

The low total of 5.5 suggests this will be a tightly contested affair, which makes sense given both teams' ability to defend. Detroit has improved dramatically in their own zone, limiting quality chances and giving their goaltenders clean looks. Winnipeg's defensive metrics have been solid, and they don't give up easy goals at home.

This is a quality matchup between two legitimate playoff teams. Detroit is proving they belong, while Winnipeg is solidifying their status as one of the West's best. The Jets should have the edge at home, but the Red Wings have shown they can win on the road against good teams. The under might be the smart play in a game where both teams will prioritize structure over firewagon hockey.

Los Angeles has quietly built one of the more complete rosters in the Western Conference. Anze Kopitar remains a two-way force well into his career, while Quinton Byfield's development has added another dimension to their forward group. The Kings play a structured, patient game that can frustrate opponents who want to play run-and-gun hockey. Their road record has been solid, and they consistently compete in games regardless of opponent.

St. Louis has been a disappointment relative to expectations. The Blues were hoping their championship core could mount one more run, but the results haven't materialized. Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou provide offensive spark, but the supporting cast hasn't produced consistently. Goaltending has been a question mark, and the defensive structure that Craig Berube instilled has eroded under the new coaching staff.

The Kings' process metrics are strong. Their possession numbers suggest a team that controls play at 5-on-5, and their special teams have been reliable. LA doesn't beat themselves with undisciplined penalties or turnovers in the neutral zone. They're the type of team that grinds opponents down over 60 minutes.

St. Louis will bring effort at home, but effort without execution only gets you so far. The Blues have the talent to hang with anyone on a given night, but the consistency isn't there. LA is the more trustworthy team right now, and they should be able to control this game's tempo. The low total suggests a tight, defensive contest, which favors the Kings' style.

The back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers bring their championship swagger to Minnesota for what should be an outstanding hockey game. Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and Sam Reinhart lead an offense that knows how to win when it matters. The Panthers' playoff experience is unmatched, and they carry themselves with the confidence of champions. Sergei Bobrovsky has been clutch in big moments, and the entire roster understands what it takes to succeed in high-pressure situations.

Minnesota has been one of the league's best home teams this season, posting an excellent record at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild feed off their passionate fanbase, and the atmosphere can be overwhelming for opponents. Kirill Kaprizov is having another outstanding season, establishing himself as one of the game's elite wingers. Minnesota's defensive structure has been solid, and their goaltending has been reliable.

The 29-14 Wild have earned the right to be home favorites, but getting the defending champions at plus money is intriguing. Florida has the experience and composure to handle hostile environments, having won games in some of the toughest buildings en route to consecutive titles. The Panthers don't panic, they execute their system, and they find ways to win tight games.

This is a fascinating matchup between championship pedigree and home ice dominance. Minnesota will control pace and limit Florida's transition opportunities. The Panthers will rely on their stars to create in tight spaces. The low total reflects respect for both teams' defensive abilities. Expect a playoff-atmosphere game where the margins are razor thin.

The nightcap features Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals visiting Connor McDavid and the Oilers in what's become a passing-of-the-torch type matchup. Ovechkin continues his chase of Wayne Gretzky's all-time goals record, while McDavid reigns as the game's best player. Washington has been competitive this season, playing better than many expected despite roster limitations. The veteran leadership and Ovechkin's relentless pursuit of history give the Capitals motivation every night.

Edmonton is built around the best player in hockey, and when McDavid is on, the Oilers are nearly impossible to stop. Leon Draisaitl provides a 1-2 punch that no other team can match, and the supporting cast has improved from the early years of the McDavid era. Rogers Place is one of the league's toughest buildings, where the Oilers can bury opponents with their speed and skill in transition.

The Capitals' road struggles have been well documented this season. Washington has had difficulty maintaining defensive structure away from Capital One Arena, and facing McDavid in Edmonton is about as tough as road assignments get. The Oilers will push pace, attack in transition, and try to turn this into a track meet, which plays to their strengths.

Edmonton should control this game with their speed and skill advantage. The Oilers' power play is lethal, and Washington takes penalties on the road. McDavid and Draisaitl are capable of taking over any game, and this is a spot where they should shine. The Capitals have heart and Ovechkin, but this is a mismatch on paper that should play out as expected on the ice.