Predators @ Bruins
Tuesday, 7:00 PM ET | TD Garden
Here's one that might surprise you. Nashville is a slight road favorite at TD Garden, sitting at -115 while Boston checks in at -110. That's essentially a coin flip, but the fact that the Predators are getting that respect on the road tells you something about how well they've been playing. Nashville's 24-23-4 record doesn't exactly scream powerhouse, but they've been a much better team than their record suggests over the past few weeks. Juuse Saros remains one of the league's most underrated goaltenders, capable of stealing games single-handedly, and his .918 save percentage on the road this season is elite for a traveling netminder.
Boston at 30-20-2 has had an inconsistent stretch despite a solid overall record. The Bruins' home ice hasn't been the fortress it was in previous seasons, and they're running Joonas Korpisalo in net tonight. That's a significant downgrade from what this franchise was used to in the crease. Korpisalo has been serviceable but far from spectacular, and facing a Nashville team with legitimate offensive firepower through the likes of Filip Forsberg and the playmaking of Roman Josi from the blue line is a tall order. Boston's power play has cooled off recently, and their 5-on-5 expected goals numbers have dipped below league average over the past ten games.
The 6.5 total feels right for this matchup. Both teams can score, and neither goaltender inspires the kind of confidence that suggests a tight defensive battle. Nashville's transition game can create chaos for Boston's defensemen, particularly on the rush where the Predators' speed gets them behind opposing blue lines. Saros versus Korpisalo is the kind of goaltending edge that bettors should pay attention to, because when these two are both average, it's going to come down to which skater group generates more high-danger chances.
The Predators' penalty kill has been solid all season, ranking in the top ten, which matters against a Boston team that leans on its man advantage. Nashville also brings a physicality that can wear down opponents in the second and third periods. TD Garden will be loud, but this Predators team doesn't seem to care about hostile environments. They've actually been a better road team than home team for most of the year, which is a rare and telling stat.