Soccer Analysis

Chelsea under Liam Rosenior have been a completely different animal. Since the 36-year-old replaced Enzo Maresca on January 6, signing a six-year deal that signaled the club's long-term commitment, Chelsea have won all four of their Premier League matches. That's a perfect start that has vaulted them to 5th on 43 points, just one behind Manchester United in the Champions League race. What's been particularly impressive is the attacking output: Chelsea have scored three or more goals in three of those four wins, suggesting Rosenior has unlocked something in this squad's offensive DNA that Maresca couldn't quite find consistently. The football has been direct, high-energy, and clinical in the final third.

The concern for Chelsea is a mounting injury list that could test their squad depth in the second half of the season. Jamie Gittens is out with a hamstring problem, Tosin Adarabioyo has his own hamstring issue, Romeo Lavia continues to battle a muscle injury (a frustratingly familiar story for the Belgian), and Levi Colwill is nursing a knee problem. That's four players who would otherwise feature prominently in the rotation, and the compressed fixture schedule means those absences could start to bite if Rosenior doesn't manage his available resources carefully. Still, the squad Chelsea assembled over their massive spending spree has enough quality to cope, and the home advantage at Stamford Bridge has been a genuine asset this season.

Leeds arrive in London in 16th place on 29 points, which sounds precarious but actually represents a relatively comfortable cushion. They're nine points clear of the relegation zone, and their most recent result, a spirited 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest, showed they're more than capable of competing when the confidence is flowing. Pascal Struijk is out with a hip injury and Daniel James has been sidelined since November with a hamstring problem, which limits their options on both ends of the pitch. That said, this Leeds side has shown resilience throughout the season, and the Asian Handicap market reflects that: Leeds +1 is available at 1.90, suggesting the bookmakers see a scenario where Leeds keep this competitive even if they don't win outright.

The Chelsea win probability sits between 62% and 67% across major sportsbooks, making them heavy favorites. At 1.50, they're priced as expected for a side with a perfect record under their new manager playing at home against a lower-half opponent. But there's a nagging question: how long can this honeymoon period last? Four wins from four is unsustainable, and at some point regression will kick in. Whether that happens Tuesday against a Leeds side with nothing to lose and plenty of fight is the key question. The over 2.5 goals market is worth watching, given Chelsea's propensity to score in bunches and Leeds' ability to find the net on the counter. This has all the ingredients of a 3-1 or 2-1 scoreline, and the atmosphere at the Bridge should be electric.

If you're looking for the most depressing fixture on Tuesday's card, congratulations, you've found it. This is the Battle of the Crises, two clubs who should be competing for European football instead staring at each other from the wrong end of the table wondering where it all went wrong. Tottenham sit 15th on 29 points, winless in their last seven Premier League matches. Seven. That's not a rough patch, that's a full-blown collapse. Thomas Frank was supposed to be the man who turned things around after the post-Ange chaos, but the injuries have been absolutely devastating. The list reads like a casualty ward: James Maddison is done for the season with an ACL tear, Dejan Kulusevski has a knee problem, Mohammed Kudus has a thigh injury, Pedro Porro has a hamstring issue, Richarlison has a hamstring problem of his own, Rodrigo Bentancur has a hamstring injury, Ben Davies has an ankle issue, Lucas Bergvall has an ankle problem, and Kevin Danso is dealing with a broken toe ligament. The one bit of good news is that Micky van de Ven is expected to return, which at least gives Spurs some defensive stability.

The home form tells the story of Tottenham's season in miniature: 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. That's a home record that belongs to a relegation candidate, not a club with Champions League ambitions just 18 months ago. When you can't win at home and you've lost your best players to injury, the spiral becomes self-reinforcing. The confidence drains, the crowd gets restless, and even the players who are available start second-guessing themselves. Frank is working with a skeleton crew, and while nobody doubts his tactical credentials after what he built at Brentford, he simply doesn't have the bodies to implement any coherent system right now.

Newcastle aren't faring much better, though. They're 12th on 33 points and winless in their last five Premier League matches. More damning than the results is this statistic: Newcastle have dropped more points from winning positions than any other team in the Premier League, a staggering 19 points thrown away. That's not bad luck, that's a systemic inability to close out matches, and it speaks to either a fitness problem, a mentality problem, or both. The injury situation compounds things further. Fabian Schar, Joelinton, and Tino Livramento are all out, while Anthony Gordon is listed as doubtful. When your most dangerous attacking threat might not play, your chances of breaking through a stubbornly organized defense drop significantly.

The market has this as essentially a pick'em, with Spurs at 2.70 and Newcastle at 2.60, and it's hard to argue with that assessment. Neither side deserves to be favored based on recent form. The over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.82, which implies the market expects at least three goals, and that feels right given both defenses have been leaking chances at an alarming rate. Spurs' defensive fragility combined with Newcastle's inability to hold leads creates a recipe for chaotic, entertaining football, even if the quality isn't always there. It's the kind of match where you wouldn't be surprised by a 3-3 draw and you also wouldn't be surprised by a dour 0-0. The unpredictability is, weirdly, the most predictable thing about both these teams right now.

There's a genuine feel-good story brewing at Goodison Park, and it has everything to do with David Moyes' emotional return and the impact it's had on a club that spent most of the last two seasons looking over their shoulder at the bottom three. Everton are 8th on 37 points, which might not sound spectacular until you remember this is a club that was battling relegation as recently as last spring. The transformation has been remarkable. They won 2-1 at Fulham most recently, and the broader trajectory under Moyes has them pushing for a European spot in what would be the final season at Goodison Park before the move to Bramley-Moore Dock. The romantic storyline practically writes itself, and the Everton faithful are feeding off it.

The significant blow for Everton is losing Jack Grealish for the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his foot. Grealish, who arrived to rejuvenate his career after falling out of favor at Manchester City, had been a creative spark for Moyes' side, and replacing that kind of quality in the January window isn't straightforward. Beyond Grealish, though, Everton are relatively healthy, which is a luxury that most Premier League sides aren't enjoying right now. Both teams come into this unbeaten in their last five league matches, which sets up a compelling tactical battle between two sides who are quietly having seasons that deserve more attention than they're getting.

Bournemouth sit 11th on 34 points, just three behind Everton, and they've been a tough out for everyone this season under Andoni Iraola. Their 1-1 draw with Aston Villa was the latest in a string of results that show they can compete with anyone on their day. The injury list is a concern, though. Justin Kluivert is out with a knee problem, Tyler Adams has a knee issue of his own, and Marcus Tavernier is sidelined with a thigh injury. Those are three players who provide energy, creativity, and defensive work rate in the middle and wide areas, and losing all three simultaneously could leave Bournemouth exposed against an Everton side that's been playing with real purpose at home.

The odds paint this as a closely contested affair, and that feels accurate. Everton at 2.51 and Bournemouth at 3.03 suggest a slight home advantage, which is fair given Goodison's atmosphere and Moyes' ability to make the old ground a difficult place to visit. The draw at 3.49 is also very much in play given both sides' recent ability to grind out results. What makes this intriguing is the contrast in styles: Everton under Moyes are structured, disciplined, and lethal on set pieces, while Bournemouth under Iraola play a more expansive, possession-based game. Something has to give, and the beauty of a mid-table Premier League clash like this is that neither side has anything to fear. Expect an honest, competitive match where the margins are razor-thin.

On paper, this should be a routine quarter-final for Napoli at the Maradona. In reality, the odds tell a completely different story, and it all comes down to one devastating word: injuries. Antonio Conte's side are missing half their spine. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, the captain and defensive rock, is out for two to three months with a knee injury. Matteo Politano has a muscle problem. Amir Rrahmani has a muscle issue of his own. Goalkeeper Alex Meret is sidelined with a shoulder injury. And the midfield trio of Scott McTominay, Frank Anguissa, and Billy Gilmour are all listed as doubtful, which means Conte could be fielding a team that barely resembles the one challenging for the Scudetto in Serie A. That's why the market has this priced at 2.50 for Napoli, a number that would be laughable under normal circumstances but makes complete sense when you see the team sheet.

Como have been the darlings of Italian football since earning promotion, and while their Serie A campaign has been a battle for survival, the Coppa Italia represents a genuine opportunity for a deep cup run that could define their season. They've shown they can compete at the highest level when the circumstances align, and facing a Napoli side stripped of its best players at the Maradona is about as favorable a draw as a lower-table team could hope for. The market reflects this opportunity, with Como at 2.85 and the draw at 3.15, making this essentially a three-way coin flip. For a quarter-final between a title challenger and a newly promoted side, those odds are extraordinary and speak volumes about the impact of Napoli's injury crisis.

The Maradona faithful will need to be the extra man on Tuesday. Without their captain, their first-choice keeper, their creative fulcrum in Politano, and potentially their entire starting midfield, Conte will be leaning on fringe players, youth products, and sheer tactical discipline to navigate this tie. Conte's track record in knockout competitions is excellent, and his ability to organize any group of players into a cohesive defensive unit is well documented, but there's a limit to how much coaching can compensate for missing this many starters. This is a genuine cupset waiting to happen, and Como will know it. The single-leg format means one goal can change everything, and in a hostile but nervous Maradona, the pressure is entirely on the home side.

The magic of the cup is alive and well in Berlin. Hertha, languishing in the 2. Bundesliga, have been on an absolute tear through this season's DFB Pokal, and the numbers are staggering. They've scored nine goals in their last two rounds, including a 6-1 demolition of Kaiserslautern that announced to the entire country that this isn't a side content with simply participating. The Olympiastadion will be rocking for this one, and when 75,000 Berliners get behind their team in a cup quarter-final against top-flight opposition, strange things happen. Hertha's players will feel like they're in the Champions League final, not a domestic cup match, and that energy can be the great equalizer between divisions.

Freiburg, the established Bundesliga side, arrive as deserved favorites at 2.15 but will be wary of the trap. Christian Streich's successor has kept Freiburg competitive in the top flight, and their recent 1-0 win over Werder Bremen demonstrated the kind of defensive solidity and tactical discipline that has been the club's hallmark for over a decade. Freiburg don't blow teams away, they suffocate them. They control tempo, limit chances, and strike efficiently when opportunities arise. It's a proven formula that works brilliantly in knockout football, where pragmatism trumps aesthetics every time. But it's also a style that can be disrupted by raw emotion and intensity, which is exactly what Hertha will bring in front of their home crowd.

The pricing tells an interesting story: Hertha at 3.30 and the draw at 3.30 are identical, which means the market sees a non-Freiburg-win outcome as slightly more likely than a Freiburg victory in normal time. That's notable for a cross-division matchup. The cup has consistently produced upsets in German football, and Hertha's run to the quarters has been built on genuine quality performances, not fluky results. Nine goals in two rounds is emphatic. Freiburg will need to be sharp from the first whistle, because if Hertha score early, the Olympiastadion will become a cauldron that no amount of Bundesliga experience can prepare you for. This is the kind of quarter-final that reminds you why domestic cups still matter.