Chiefs -3.5 vs. Raiders at -110. You estimate the Chiefs cover 56% of the time. Bankroll: $5,000.
Step 1: Convert -110 to decimal: 1.909
Step 2: Kelly % = (1.909 × 0.56 - 1) / (1.909 - 1) = 0.069 / 0.909 = 7.6%
Step 3: Apply half Kelly = 3.8% of $5,000 = $190
Orioles +160 vs. Yankees. You give the Orioles a 45% chance to win. Bankroll: $5,000.
Step 1: Convert +160 to decimal: 2.60
Step 2: Kelly % = (2.60 × 0.45 - 1) / (2.60 - 1) = 0.17 / 1.60 = 10.6%
Step 3: Half Kelly = 5.3%, cap at 5% = $250
Lakers -110. You estimate them at 51% to cover. Bankroll: $5,000.
Kelly %: (1.909 × 0.51 - 1) / (1.909 - 1) = -0.026 or -2.6%
Result: Negative Kelly = no edge. Skip this bet.
Warriors/Suns Over 228.5 at -115. You estimate over hits 59% of the time. Bankroll: $6,000.
Step 1: Convert -115 to decimal: 1.870
Step 2: Kelly % = (1.870 × 0.59 - 1) / (1.870 - 1) = 0.103 / 0.870 = 11.8%
Step 3: Half Kelly = 5.9%, cap at 5% = $300