BETLEGEND

Simple Kelly Criterion Guide

The Kelly Criterion answers one question: how much should I bet? It's a formula that calculates the optimal bet size based on your edge and the odds you're getting.

The Basic Idea

Bet more when you have a big edge. Bet less when your edge is small. Bet nothing when you have no edge. Kelly does this math automatically.

How to Use It (Simple Version)

  1. Figure out your estimated win probability (this is the hard part)
  2. Look at the odds the sportsbook is offering
  3. Plug both into the Kelly calculator
  4. The calculator tells you what percentage of your bankroll to bet
  5. Multiply that percentage by your current bankroll to get your bet amount

The Most Important Rule

Use half Kelly, not full Kelly. If the calculator says bet 10%, bet 5% instead. This protects you from overestimating your edge, which everyone does.

What You Need to Get Started

  1. A betting bankroll (money you can afford to lose)
  2. A track record proving you can beat the closing line
  3. Honest estimates of your win probability on each bet
  4. The discipline to skip bets where you don't have an edge

Don't use Kelly until you've proven you're profitable over at least 100 bets. Track everything on paper first. If you can't beat the closing line, Kelly won't save you.

Bottom Line

Kelly Criterion helps you bet more when you should and less when you shouldn't. It prevents you from overbetting when you're confident and underbetting when you've got a real edge. But it only works if you're honest about your win probability estimates.

← Read the Full Kelly Criterion Guide