#10 Miami vs 
#6 Ole MissTwo Cinderella Stories Collide
This is what the expanded College Football Playoff was made for. Two teams that nobody expected to be here, led by two quarterbacks with wildly different journeys, fighting for a spot in the National Championship Game. Miami, the first true "Cinderella" of the 12-team era, just knocked off second-ranked Ohio State as 9.5-point underdogs in the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss, playing without head coach Lane Kiffin after he bolted for LSU, has rallied behind interim coach Pete Golding and demolished Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
The storylines are absolutely incredible. Carson Beck transferred from Georgia after a messy exit following an elbow injury, took a massive NIL deal from Miami, and now finds himself one win away from playing for a national title against the school that spurned him. Trinidad Chambliss was a Division II backup at Ferris State two years ago, transferred to Ole Miss as a third-string afterthought, and is now the engine driving an SEC powerhouse through the playoff. You couldn't script this better if you tried.
Miami opened as 3.5-point favorites, and the line has held steady. The Hurricanes have been the better team on paper all season, but Ole Miss has the momentum after back-to-back blowout and comeback wins. This game comes down to one question: which quarterback rises to the moment when the lights are brightest?
Carson Beck: Redemption Tour
Let's be clear about something: Carson Beck didn't leave Georgia under ideal circumstances. After suffering an elbow injury in the SEC Championship Game against Texas, Beck reportedly scheduled surgery without coordinating with the university. The relationship soured, and when Miami came calling with a reported $4 million NIL package, Beck made the decision to transfer and use his sixth year of eligibility in Coral Gables.
Critics questioned whether Beck could lead a team to the playoff without the loaded roster he had at Georgia. Those critics have been silenced. Beck is 35-5 as a starting quarterback over his career, having started 40 games between Georgia and Miami over the last three seasons. He knows how to win. He knows how to manage big moments. And he's done it at the highest level.
In the Cotton Bowl against Ohio State, Beck wasn't asked to be spectacular. He was asked to be efficient. Mission accomplished: 19-of-26 passing for 138 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, he was 8-of-11 on third and fourth downs, converting seven of them into first downs or touchdowns. That's the kind of clutch performance that wins playoff games.
Beck's Miami offense isn't built on volume—it's built on execution. The Hurricanes lean on their running game with Mark Fletcher Jr. and Damien Martinez, then let Beck strike through the air when defenses sell out to stop the run. Against Ole Miss's defense, which has been vulnerable to explosive plays at times, Beck should find opportunities for chunk yardage.
Trinidad Chambliss: The Ultimate Underdog Story
If you don't know Trinidad Chambliss's story, buckle up. This man was a Division II backup at Ferris State just two years ago. He transferred to Ole Miss in April 2025 as a depth piece, expected to hold a clipboard behind starter Austin Simmons. When Simmons went down with an ankle injury in Week 2, Chambliss got his chance. He hasn't looked back since.
Miami's defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman called Chambliss "the best player we've played to this point." That's high praise considering the Hurricanes just faced Ohio State's loaded roster. What makes Chambliss special is his composure under pressure. In the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, Ole Miss trailed 21-6 at halftime. Most teams would fold. Instead, Chambliss led a fourth-quarter explosion, completing 30 passes for 362 yards and two touchdowns to earn offensive MVP honors in the 39-34 comeback win.
Chambliss has a quick release, excellent pocket awareness, and the ability to extend plays with his legs. He's not going to wow you with arm strength, but he makes the right reads and delivers accurate throws in tight windows. The question is whether he can handle Miami's pass rush, which has been disruptive throughout the playoff.
There's also the eligibility question hanging over this game. Chambliss has agreed to return to Ole Miss for 2026, but he needs an NCAA waiver for a sixth season. That decision will come later—tonight, he's focused on cementing his legend with one more signature performance.
The Lane Kiffin Elephant in the Room
Let's address the obvious: Lane Kiffin is not on the Ole Miss sideline tonight. He left for LSU in the middle of the playoff, and the optics were... not great. But here's the thing: Ole Miss hasn't missed a beat. In fact, you could argue they've played their best football of the season since Kiffin's departure.
Interim head coach Pete Golding, who was the defensive coordinator, has kept the ship steady. The key decision was retaining offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. and running backs coach Kevin Smith for the playoff run. That continuity has allowed Chambliss and the offense to keep rolling without disruption.
If anything, Kiffin's exit seems to have galvanized this team. The players are playing for each other, for Golding, and for the program—not for a coach who had one foot out the door. Sometimes adversity brings teams together. Ole Miss is living proof.
The Quarterback Matchup
Miami Hurricanes (12-2)Ole Miss Rebels (13-1)How They Got Here
Miami's Path: The Hurricanes entered the playoff as the 10-seed, opening on the road at Texas A&M. They ground out an ugly 10-3 win in College Station, then pulled the upset of the tournament by knocking off second-ranked Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl. Miami was a 9.5-point underdog against the Buckeyes—the largest spread overcome in CFP quarterfinal history. Beck and the defense stepped up when it mattered most.
Ole Miss's Path: The Rebels crushed Tulane 41-10 in the first round, avenging their 45-10 regular season beatdown of the Green Wave with another dominant performance. Then came the Sugar Bowl, where Ole Miss fell behind Georgia 21-6 at halftime before Chambliss orchestrated an incredible comeback. The Rebels outscored the Bulldogs 33-13 in the second half, winning 39-34 in one of the best games of the playoff.
Both teams are battle-tested. Both have proven they can win close games and blowouts. The difference? Miami has been the underdog in both playoff games, while Ole Miss has been favored. Tonight, the Hurricanes flip the script as 3.5-point favorites.
Key Betting Trends
Miami: 2-0 ATS in the playoff as underdogs. Covered by 13.5 points vs Texas A&M, covered by 19.5 points vs Ohio State. First time favored in the CFP.
Ole Miss: 2-0 SU in playoff, covered -17 vs Tulane, failed to cover vs Georgia (favored by 3.5, won by 5). Playing without Lane Kiffin.
Series History: Ole Miss leads all-time series 2-1. Last meeting was 1951—Miami won 20-7. Essentially a fresh matchup.
Total: Set at 52.5. Miami games have trended under recently (10-3 and 24-14 in playoff). Ole Miss games have been higher scoring (41-10, 39-34).
Keys To Victory
For Miami: Control the clock. The Hurricanes have won their playoff games by dominating time of possession and keeping opposing offenses off the field. Mark Fletcher Jr. and the running game need to move the chains, set up play-action, and keep Chambliss standing on the sideline. Defensively, Miami must pressure Chambliss without leaving receivers open downfield—he's shown he can make you pay if you blitz recklessly. Beck doesn't need to be a hero; he needs to be efficient and avoid turnovers.
For Ole Miss: Start fast. Miami has won both playoff games by building early leads and making opponents chase. The Rebels cannot afford to fall behind like they did against Georgia—comebacks against elite teams are incredibly difficult, and they can't count on catching lightning twice. Chambliss needs to attack the middle of the field against Miami's zone coverages and keep drives alive on third down. Defensively, Ole Miss must find a way to generate pressure without selling out, because Beck is surgical when given clean pockets.
Final Thoughts
This game is going to be closer than people think. Miami has been dominant in the playoff, but they haven't faced an offense as explosive as Ole Miss. The Rebels have shown they can score points in bunches—39 against Georgia, 41 against Tulane. Carson Beck is experienced, but Trinidad Chambliss has been the most clutch player in the entire tournament.
The market opened Miami -3.5 and it's held there. That suggests analysis suggests this as a toss-up with a slight lean toward the Hurricanes. The total at 52.5 feels about right given Miami's defensive performances and Ole Miss's offensive firepower.
What we know for certain: one of these Cinderella stories ends tonight. Either Beck completes his redemption tour and leads Miami to the National Championship, or Chambliss adds another chapter to the most improbable story in college football history. There's no wrong answer here—just enjoy the ride.
Winner plays for the National Championship. Stakes don't get any higher than this.
