#1 Oregon vs 
#9 IndianaThe Granddaddy of Them All
There's something magical about New Year's Day at the Rose Bowl. The San Gabriel Mountains as a backdrop, the Tournament of Roses parade fresh in everyone's mind, and two teams with everything on the line. This year's edition features an undefeated Oregon squad that's been the most complete team in college football all season, and an Indiana program that's rewritten its entire history under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti.
Indiana comes in as 3.5-point favorites, which might surprise some given Oregon's undefeated record. But the oddsmakers know something: this Hoosiers team under Curt Cignetti is legit. Oregon has been dominant all season, led by Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel and a defense that's surrendered just 17.8 points per game. They've beaten every team on their schedule by double digits except for a nail-biter against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Ducks are getting points for the first time all season.
But don't count out Indiana. The Hoosiers have been the feel-good story of the 2025 season, going from perennial Big Ten doormat to CFP participant in Cignetti's first year. Kurtis Rourke has been everything they needed at quarterback, and this defense has been sneaky good. They're not supposed to be here, and that's exactly why they're dangerous.
Dillon Gabriel: The Ultimate Winner
Here's the thing about Dillon Gabriel: the man just wins. In his sixth year of college football and third different program (UCF, Oklahoma, Oregon), Gabriel has compiled a career record that speaks for itself. He's been a starter at every stop, and he's led every team to bowl eligibility. But this Oregon run has been something special.
Gabriel has thrown for 3,558 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions this season. His passer rating is elite, his decision-making is impeccable, and he's surrounded by weapons. Tez Johnson has been one of the best receivers in the country, and Jordan James has emerged as a legitimate Doak Walker candidate in the backfield.
What makes Gabriel truly special is his ability to elevate in big moments. Against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, he threw for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game Oregon absolutely had to have. He doesn't panic, he doesn't force throws, and he plays within the system while still making plays downfield. Indiana's defense hasn't seen a quarterback this polished all season.
The Ducks' offense averages 38.2 points per game, and they do it with a balanced attack. They'll run Jordan James between the tackles, spread you out with four-receiver sets, and let Gabriel pick you apart from the pocket. It's a nightmare to game plan against because there's no single thing you can take away to stop them.
Curt Cignetti: The Turnaround Artist
When Indiana hired Curt Cignetti away from James Madison, the expectations were modest. Maybe compete for a bowl game. Maybe win 6-7 games. Nobody—and I mean nobody—expected this. The Hoosiers went 11-1 in the regular season, won the Big Ten East, and earned a first-round bye in the expanded playoff.
Cignetti brought the same formula that worked at JMU: get tough, play physical, and don't beat yourself. He inherited a roster that went 3-9 the year before and turned them into playoff contenders. The transfer portal helped—Kurtis Rourke from Ohio and several key defensive pieces—but the culture change was the real difference maker.
Indiana's offense isn't flashy, but it's effective. Rourke is a game manager who can make all the throws, Justice Ellison runs hard between the tackles, and the offensive line has been surprisingly stout. They're not going to light up the scoreboard, but they'll control possession, convert third downs, and keep the defense fresh.
The defense is where Indiana hangs its hat. They're allowing just 15.2 points per game—better than Oregon's defense statistically. They don't have star power, but they play as a unit, tackle well, and don't give up big plays. The question is whether that formula works against the most explosive offense they've faced all year.
The Quarterback Matchup
Oregon Ducks (13-0)Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)Why Oregon Covers
Getting 3.5 points with an undefeated team led by a Heisman finalist? Sign me up. The Ducks are simply more talented. When you break down the matchups position by position, Oregon has an advantage at almost every spot. Gabriel is better than Rourke. The Oregon receivers are better than Indiana's. The Oregon offensive line is better. And while Indiana's defense has been great, they haven't faced an offense this potent.
Oregon's defense has also been underrated. They're third in the nation in scoring defense and have playmakers at every level. Indiana's offense relies on not making mistakes, but Oregon's defensive line can create pressure that forces Rourke into uncomfortable situations. If Indiana falls behind, they don't have the offensive firepower to come back—and even if Oregon loses by a field goal, they still cover.
The Ducks have also been here before—not literally, but in terms of pressure situations. Gabriel has played in huge games his entire career. Dan Lanning has this team prepared. They're not going to be rattled by the stage or the stakes. Getting points with the better team is always a good spot.
Why Indiana Covers
There's a reason Indiana is favored. Cignetti has this group playing with a chip on their shoulder, and the betting market respects what they've accomplished. This isn't last year's Hoosiers—this is a legitimate CFP team that's earned the right to be here.
The Hoosiers can control the tempo. If Indiana wins the time of possession battle, keeps Gabriel on the sideline, and makes this a 50-play game instead of a 70-play game, they cover easily. Their defense is built to limit explosive plays, and if they can force Oregon into field goal attempts instead of touchdowns, those points add up. A 4-point win covers.
There's also the Rose Bowl factor. Neutral site, New Year's Day, massive stage—Indiana has embraced every big moment this season. Oregon has more talent, but Indiana has the coaching, the discipline, and the system. Sometimes the team that executes beats the team with more stars.
Key Betting Trends
Oregon: 10-3 ATS this season. Covered the spread in both November rivalry games. 13-0 straight up with an average margin of victory of 20.4 points.
Indiana: 9-3 ATS this season. Covered as underdogs in both games they were dogs. 3-0 ATS in their last three games against ranked opponents.
Series History: These programs have never met. First-ever matchup between Oregon and Indiana in football.
Total: Set at 55.5. Oregon games have averaged 56.0 total points this season. Indiana games have averaged 50.6. The over is 7-6 in Oregon games.
Keys To Victory
For Oregon: Start fast and don't let Indiana hang around. The Ducks need to establish the run early with Jordan James, which will open up the play-action game for Gabriel. On defense, they need to get pressure with four and not let Rourke get comfortable in the pocket. If Oregon scores on their first two possessions, this game could get out of hand quickly. Don't give Indiana hope.
For Indiana: Win the turnover battle and convert in the red zone. The Hoosiers can't afford to give Oregon short fields, and when they get inside the 20, they need touchdowns, not field goals. Cignetti will want to slow this game down, run the ball, and milk the clock. On defense, they need to tackle well in space and make Gabriel hold the ball. If they can force a couple of punts and keep this close into the fourth quarter, anything can happen.
Final Thoughts
This is a fascinating line. Indiana as 3.5-point favorites against an undefeated Oregon team led by a Heisman finalist quarterback? The market is telling us something—either the Hoosiers are for real, or there's value on the Ducks. Oregon has been dominant all season, they have the better quarterback, and the better skill players. Getting 3.5 points with that kind of firepower is intriguing.
Indiana has earned this favorite status. They've covered spreads all year, they play disciplined football, and Cignetti has this team believing. But 3.5 points is a small margin, and Oregon has the talent to win outright. This feels like a game that comes down to the final possession.
The Rose Bowl is always special. Enjoy the pageantry, enjoy the scenery, and enjoy watching one of the best quarterbacks in college football (Gabriel) try to pull the upset against a team that's rewritten its program history. Indiana's story has been incredible—now they have to prove they can finish it.
Winner advances to face the Cotton Bowl winner in the CFP Semifinal. For Oregon, it's about maintaining perfection as underdogs. For Indiana, it's about proving the oddsmakers right. Let's see who wants it more.
