Florida Panthers @ 
Carolina HurricanesBack-to-Back Champions Visit Raleigh
The Florida Panthers are not your typical 24-18-3 team. This is the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion, the first team to repeat since the 2017 Penguins. They just visited the White House yesterday to celebrate their second consecutive title, and now they head to Raleigh to face a Carolina Hurricanes squad that has been one of the best home teams in the Eastern Conference. This is appointment hockey viewing.
What makes this Florida team even more remarkable? They have played the entire season without Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, both sidelined with long-term injuries. Let that sink in. Two of their best players, gone for the whole year, and they still have 51 points. The Panthers are second in the NHL in high-danger goals (72) and sixth in high-danger shooting percentage (21.1%). This team knows how to score when it matters.
Carolina comes in at 28-15-4 with 60 points, sitting comfortably in the Metropolitan Division. But here is the uncomfortable truth for Hurricanes fans: Florida has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams, including both matchups this season. The Panthers rallied from multi-goal, third-period deficits in both games, including a 5-2 win right here in Raleigh on December 23rd. Carolina has had no answer for the defending champs.
Last 7 Meetings: Panthers 6-1
2025-26 Season Series: Panthers 2-0 (including 5-2 win in Raleigh Dec 23)
Over/Under Trend: Over hit in 4 of last 5 meetings
6+ Goals: 7 of last 10 meetings have hit 6+ total goals
The Star Power Comparison
Florida Panthers (24-18-3)Carolina Hurricanes (28-15-4)Sam Reinhart has been absolutely sensational for Florida. He leads the team with 45 points in 45 games (24G, 21A), and has been on fire lately with 22 points in his last 21 games since December. Without Tkachuk and Barkov, Reinhart has stepped into the alpha role, and he is thriving. His 10 high-danger goals tie him with Sam Bennett for second on the team.
Sergei Bobrovsky remains one of the best big-game goalies in the NHL. At 37 years old, with 446 career wins (eighth all-time), Bob knows how to win games that matter. His .975 long-range save percentage puts him in the 87th percentile, meaning he is elite at stopping perimeter shots. In the playoffs, this man is a different animal, and that championship experience carries over into regular season games against quality opponents.
For Carolina, Sebastian Aho just reached a massive milestone. He scored his 300th career goal, with 21 of those coming shorthanded. He has been on fire lately, with four goals and seven assists in his last six games. But here is the problem: even with Aho playing at an elite level, Carolina has not been able to crack the code against Florida. The Panthers have owned this matchup.
Record: 24-18-3 (51 points) without their two best forwards
High-Danger Goals: 72 (2nd in NHL)
Offensive Zone Time: 42.6% (T-4th in NHL)
Potential Return: Tkachuk went through full practice Wednesday
The Betting Line Breakdown
Carolina opens as -170 favorites on the moneyline, with Florida at +140 as road underdogs. The puck line has the Panthers +1.5 at -176 and the Hurricanes -1.5 at +142. The total is set at 6.0 goals. Given that seven of the last ten meetings between these teams have seen six or more goals, that number feels right in the pocket.
Here is what jumps off the page: Carolina is just 9-16 ATS at home this season. That is a brutal 36% cover rate. The Hurricanes win games at home, sure, but they are not covering the number. Florida, meanwhile, is 8-11 ATS on the road, but they have won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings. Sometimes the better team is the better bet regardless of ATS records.
The Panthers have shown something remarkable this season. Despite missing their two biggest stars, they have won 76.9% of games (10 of 13) when playing as underdogs. This team has that championship DNA, the kind that shows up when people count them out. Carolina is the better team on paper right now, but Florida has absolutely owned this matchup.
Home ATS Record: 9-16 (36% cover rate)
vs Panthers 2025-26: 0-2, including 5-2 loss at home Dec 23
Last 7 vs Florida: 1-6
The Pattern: Hurricanes cannot figure out the defending champions
Why the Total is Set at 6.0
The over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these teams, and six or more goals have been scored in seven of the last ten. Both teams can put the puck in the net, and both have defensive vulnerabilities that can be exploited by elite offensive players.
Florida averages 3.13 goals per game (13th in the NHL) while allowing 3.20 (21st). Carolina is slightly better defensively but has shown cracks against the Panthers specifically. In that 5-2 win on December 23rd, Florida generated high-danger chances consistently and capitalized when it mattered. The Panthers' 72 high-danger goals (second in the NHL) suggest they can score against anyone.
Bobrovsky's .881 save percentage is below his career norms, which means goals are getting through. On the other side, Frederik Andersen just snapped a nine-game personal losing streak, suggesting Carolina's goaltending has been inconsistent. When both goalies are beatable and both offenses can score, the over becomes attractive.
Keys To Victory
For the Panthers to pull the road upset: Continue the blueprint that has worked all season. Generate high-danger chances and trust Bobrovsky to make the saves when needed. Sam Reinhart has to keep producing at his current pace. With Tkachuk potentially returning soon (he went through full practice Wednesday), the Panthers might even get a boost if he can play. Florida has owned this matchup, winning six of the last seven. Trust the process that has worked. Stay disciplined, avoid unnecessary penalties that let Carolina's power play get going, and capitalize on the Hurricanes' tendency to give up late-game goals.
For the Hurricanes to cover at home: Carolina needs Sebastian Aho to be the best player on the ice tonight. His recent stretch (4 goals, 7 assists in 6 games) shows he is capable. Svechnikov and Ehlers need to support him with secondary scoring. Most importantly, Carolina cannot fall behind early. In both losses to Florida this season, the Hurricanes dug themselves holes and could not climb out despite third-period rallies. Start fast, control the pace, and make Bobrovsky work early. If Carolina can build a lead and play with confidence, the home crowd at Lenovo Center can be a factor.
Final Thoughts
This is a fascinating matchup between a defending champion that refuses to quit and a home team that cannot seem to solve them. Florida comes in as underdogs despite owning the head-to-head record 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Carolina has the better record (28-15-4 vs 24-18-3) but has lost both games against the Panthers this season.
The total of 6.0 feels like the sharpest play on the board. These teams have combined for six or more goals in seven of their last ten meetings, and the over has hit in four of the last five. Both offenses can score, both defenses have been vulnerable at times, and the goaltending on both sides has been inconsistent enough to suggest goals will come.
For the moneyline, Florida at +139 has value given their dominance in this matchup. But Carolina is the better team by the standings and playing at home. This one feels like a toss-up on the winner, which makes the total the cleaner play. Expect an entertaining, high-event hockey game between two teams that know each other very well.
